"There are 5 billion phone subscriptions in the world right now. They will all be replaced by smartphones."

Not saying I disagree but I am saying you have to be careful with blanket statements like this. I recall Olympus stating that phones were simply incapable of competing with digital cameras, regardless of market. However the market has shown that phones eat into the low end market and the SLRs are pushing down from the top putting a lot of pressure on the mid-range market.

I could imagine that the 'phone' function as an adjunct to all tablets. All you need is a headset and voice dialing and your tablet can go VOIP/Cellular as the channel availability demands. Services like Gvoice making the endpoints number vanish by overlaying it with a 'logical' phone number.

Its not a huge step to cannibalization of the smartphone market by the tablet market.

A tablet doesn't fit in your pocket. I carry my phone everywhere I go. Though I would love to have a tablet, I can't imagine doing the same with one.

It's a very person to person thing. I carry both a smartphone and a tablet with me everywhere and I find myself never using the phone unless someone actually....phones.

Depends on your definition of "everywhere". I don't even walk the dog without throwing my phone in my pocket first. Would you always walk your dog with your iPad?

That's a good point, although in fairness I actually have walked my dog with my iPad, I was reading the Economist. However to the point, it requires a 'different' holding. It certainly isn't something you put in a pocket but if you tend to carry a bag around it's light enough to throw in there, around the house generally the tablet is 'near by' but my phone is always on my person.

It will be an interesting evolution.

Just look at Virgin Mobile: $25/month for unlimited data and SMS and 300 talk minutes. And $150 Android phones, no contract.

That is awfully competitive even if you have a dumb phone and just a voice plan now. And is a market where iPhone can't even get close.

I'll grant you that most will eventually end up with smartphones, if for no other reason than the phone manufacturers will simply stop making "dumb" ones. I personally prefer a "dumb" phone but I can see the writing on the wall.

Given the rather horrible options for data here in Canada, saying that smartphones will replace phones isn't quite true. I'm disinclined to get a smartphone w/o a dataplan, and I'm not sure they would sell me such. This might change, but it sucks today...