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Re:Why electric cars will take over sooner than you think by WorldMaker on Tuesday June 01, 2021 @01:48PM (#27358487)
Parts of the "rest of the world" skipped a lot of intermediate bootstrap steps and have jumped straight to "broadband internet" (fiber) because it is a far cheaper path to connectivity than bootstrapping from copper wiring or similar intermediate steps that richer countries saw due to fewer sunk costs and entrenched interests. Chinese manufacturers suggest (in their projects and investments) that there may be a similar step change around the corner (if not already here) where most of the "rest of the world" are going to find buying new EVs cheaper than most existing used (ICE) cars that the "rich people are done with".
Re:Why electric cars will take over sooner than you think by bluGill on Tuesday June 01, 2021 @02:36PM (#27359260)
True, but I don't think that applies to cars. Cars are too personally expensive and don't last long enough for outside investment. Investing in fiber is cheaper than copper if you don't have anything in the ground anyway, and either way your investment should last 50 years or so which is a lot of time to pay it off. A car can last 50 years, but only with a lot of expensive maintenance.

Also those poor countries benefit from richer countries giving up on otherwise good cars because they are not new anymore. If you are going to buy a new car, EV is the way to go, but if you can accept a used car ICEs will still be the way to go for a bit longer.

Of course this assumes average person in whichever country. the rich will do what they want, and EVs are cheap enough that they won't really care if it makes economic sense if they want one.

Re:Why electric cars will take over sooner than you think by WorldMaker on Tuesday June 01, 2021 @02:48PM (#27359430)
Some of these countries have barely functional gasoline infrastructure, but valid (and getting better) electric grids. EVs jump them out of an ugly decades old trough of bad infrastructure (and good money chasing bad).

Chinese manufacturers already have found ways to produce sub-USD$1000 EVs. They barely meet US "standards", of course, as they aren't massive beasts of steel for a family of four girthy people, intended for a daily commute across the Ozarks, and cargo/towing capacity for thousands of pounds. But, they are a game changer for small, poorer families already in China and places that can easily import from China. As economies of scale continue to increase and Chinese car exports increase at world scale, there's in theory going to be an incredible step change just based on cars already available on Alibaba and before considering the effects that will have on car manufacturing competition.

Re:Why electric cars will take over sooner than you think by bluGill on Wednesday June 02, 2021 @08:37AM (#27367961)
Those are good points. How good is something that I don't know - and I don't think you do either.

It is better to have a new sub $1000 car, or the very used car with a lot more luxury features (you know at purchase time if they work). That isn't a clear cut choice. Also we don't know how long those cheap new cars will last - it could be a lot more expensive than buying the used car with a good supply chain of parts and a proven history of being maintainable (remember that in these countries people are more likely to be willing to do the work), the new EV could well be a lot more expensive in the long run depending if it isn't well built.

Re:Why electric cars will take over sooner than you think by WorldMaker on Wednesday June 02, 2021 @02:06PM (#27371970)
One of the Jalopnik authors managed to get one of the $900 cars imported to the US and the series of articles on it are fascinating.

There are fewer moving parts in most EV designs, so my impression is that a "good supply chain" of ICE parts is still a "great supply chain" of EV parts. Most electric motors are expected to outlast the cars they are inside and rarely/never need direct maintenance. The biggest unknown in long term maintenance of EVs is batteries, and right now in general modern EV batteries are exceeding expectations which is why it is still such a long term "unknown" because overall statistically batteries are lasting 15+ years in cars and it might not be surprising if they last longer than that we're only just now getting to cars old enough to start to see real world age on the batteries.