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Re:The media's lab leak fiasco by XorNot on Thursday May 27, 2021 @11:31PM (#27311444)
Your first example there is literally an attempt to mass produce live virus for biological weapons, with human infectious viruses. As are most of your examples. This all changes if the literal goal of research is "mass produce liters of viable virus".

But viral research in general doesn't do that, because it's a huge hazard, and unnecessary (and expensive, labor intensive etc.)

What I am drawing contention on is what physically would have to happen for a lab leak to occur (and the other side problem: if it's a natural borne virus already capable of human infectivity...then it was already in the wild).

Take the 1977 issue: the suspicion is not that it was an accident with a preserved sample. The suspicion is that the Russians were actively growing up the virus (a human infectious virus) - for some type of work, probably a vaccine trial.

So we've got two basic problems: why would the Wuhan lab be growing up large quantities of this specific virus (and is there evidence they were?)...and if it was already human infectious though, why is it more likely it escaped the lab, when such a thing would already have to be in the wild to have been recovered?

There'd be no reason, having discovered COVID-19, to start growing up the virus before it had been sequenced. And there'd be no reason, without already knowing what it does, to not publish a paper describing the act of isolating and sequencing a new coronavirus, which is the type of research the Wuhan lab put out all the time. Researcher's operate on publish or perish, and Chinese researchers publish everything they can.

Re:The media's lab leak fiasco by Lazare on Friday May 28, 2021 @01:41AM (#27312104)
Those are good questions, but I think the link I provided gives some decent potential answers.

I don't know, and I'm not asserting, that any of this is true. But given what is known about the types of research being done, this doesn't seem like something we can rule out either.

For one example, the article quotes Shi Zhengli, a lab director at the Wuhan Virology Institute, who had been doing research on RaTG13, and who upon realising COVID-19 was related to RaTG13 was immediately was concerned it had leaked from her lab. According to the article, she lost sleep over this, and was enormously relieved when she could prove that the outbreak in Wuhan was not any strain that the lab had a record of storing.

I find it surprising that you are so much more convinced than a lab director of the lab in question that no such leak was possible. To be sure, perhaps she was suffering from an excess of caution...but if she found the thought plausible enough that she lost sleep over it, perhaps we, vastly further away and with much less information, should not rule the risk out entirely?

In any case, if you feel comfortable, based on your knowledge, concluding that you can rule out the lab leak hypothesis, that's great, but it does seem to put you at odds with basically every expert I've seen quoted so far.

Re:The media's lab leak fiasco by XorNot on Friday May 28, 2021 @02:42AM (#27312411)
> I find it surprising that you are so much more convinced than a lab director of the lab in question that no such leak was possible.

> when she could prove that the outbreak in Wuhan was not any strain that the lab had a record of storing.

You answered your own question. That's the point here: the evidence does not point to a lab leak.

Re:The media's lab leak fiasco by Lazare on Friday May 28, 2021 @10:02AM (#27315423)
So the director of one lab, hearing about COVID-19, apparently went "oh shit, that could have come from MY lab!" Later, she publicly announced that it's fine, it didn't come from her lab after all, then the lab was shut down, all records suppressed, and China has prevented any independent investigation.

Even if we take this at face value, and the denials were fully truthful, this tells us that:

1) it didn't leak in that form from that specific lab (of the several operating at the Virology Institute), assuming they had good record keeping. But it might have leaked from a different lab, or it might have leaked from her lab and then mutated prior to being discovered. (And, while it might seem unlikely that it mutated without any trace of intermediate forms being found, that's the exact assumption the zoonotic theory already requires...)

2) Someone in a position to know believed that a leak was plausible based on her knowledge of the types of research being performed, the quantities of material they had on hand, the safety protocols they were following, etc.

I suppose I just find that less reassuring than you do. :)

Re:The media's lab leak fiasco by rcpt on Friday May 28, 2021 @01:39AM (#27312090)
SARS 1, which is far less infectious, escaped from labs multiple times.