Working at a startup is overrated, both financially and emotionally

Re:Working at a startup is overrated, both financially and e... by mcguire on Saturday May 22, 2021 @11:41AM (#27247567)

Back of the envelope: IIRC, the article indicates that there is a 1% chance of $1B. 1% chance of 1% of $1B is worth $100,000; if $100K is greater than what you're giving up then it is worth it.

Two confounding factors: time and partial payouts. What if it takes 20 years to pay out? How does the range of possible payouts and probabilities change the valuation? That's where you establish your margin of safety and start making conservative assumptions.

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Re:Working at a startup is overrated, both financially and e... by break_the_bank on Saturday May 22, 2021 @12:02PM (#27247776)

Also that 1% would keep on diluting before the money would actually become liquid. I figured that the 1% would be 0.35% if the company had IPO'd in say 8 years. At a 1B valuation, I'd net 3Million before taxes, while the company would have gone from 6M to $1B in valuation. This didn't seem fair and I said no to this offer.

I'd have no financial regrets at the $1B valuation, but I'd if they make it to $10B/$100B.

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