Re:60 years later, is it time to update the Drake equation?
by denton-scratch on Wednesday May 19, 2021 @01:29AM
(#27204914)
"by multiplying uncertain variables, the level of uncertainty grows exponentially"
No it doesn't. It grows geometrically.
"the number of confirmed exoplanets has grown exponentially"
That implies that the rate of discovery of exoplanets is proportional to the number already discovered. I've no reason to think that's the case; and it seems really improbable.
When a science journalist uses the word "exponential" to mean "very fast", I conclude that I'm reading some kind of low-grade popsci from a lazy writer who thinks fancy words make them look clever. Well, it might to some people; to me, it just makes them look ignorant.
No it doesn't. It grows geometrically.
"the number of confirmed exoplanets has grown exponentially"
That implies that the rate of discovery of exoplanets is proportional to the number already discovered. I've no reason to think that's the case; and it seems really improbable.
When a science journalist uses the word "exponential" to mean "very fast", I conclude that I'm reading some kind of low-grade popsci from a lazy writer who thinks fancy words make them look clever. Well, it might to some people; to me, it just makes them look ignorant.