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A comment on 60 years later, is it time to update the Drake equation?. Parent comment
If we conclude for some reason that we are the first, with enough evidence, sure, like you say someone has to be first.
But with so little data, the priors for "are we first or are we just missing the others" just have to be tilted heavily away from "we're first".
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If we conclude for some reason that we are the first, with enough evidence, sure, like you say someone has to be first.
But with so little data, the priors for "are we first or are we just missing the others" just have to be tilted heavily away from "we're first".