Re:60 years later, is it time to update the Drake equation?
by jcranmer on Tuesday May 18, 2021 @01:59PM
(#27198544)
> So the sample size isn't 1 and there are known ways to detect all but 2 or 3 parameters of the drake equation.
Actually, only 2 or 3 parameters of the Drake equation are estimable. (It depends on how you want to define "planets that can potentially support life"--you can argue that the answer is anywhere between 1 and 5 in our own solar system). Everything that talks about the possibility of life evolving, let alone speculating about how it will evolve or the xenosociology of what that life will try to do, is pure conjecture: that's the last 4 values of the equation, more than half of it.
Actually, only 2 or 3 parameters of the Drake equation are estimable. (It depends on how you want to define "planets that can potentially support life"--you can argue that the answer is anywhere between 1 and 5 in our own solar system). Everything that talks about the possibility of life evolving, let alone speculating about how it will evolve or the xenosociology of what that life will try to do, is pure conjecture: that's the last 4 values of the equation, more than half of it.