Re:A long-lasting, stable solid-state lithium battery
by jillesvangurp on Tuesday May 18, 2021 @02:35AM
(#27191835)
Take it for what it is: scientists chipping away at different problems related to storing energy in solid state batteries. There is a lot of that happening. It adds up to companies finding their way to the market eventually. Battery longevity and charging times are two of the problems addressed by this particular solution.
From the lab to mass production in a giga factory while being cost competitive with other solutions is not something that is going to happen overnight, regardless how good the technology is. It requires lots of investment, planning, prototyping, etc.
However, there are several companies gearing up to start battery production around the 2025-2030 time frame that are targeting mass production that have had lots of investment and are at this point beyond the prototype stage. This includes companies backed by car vendors including Toyota, VW, GM, etc. to the extend of many billions. That suggests that if their collective efforts pay off, we could see solid state batteries creeping into the market over the next eight years. I don't expect it to displace current non solid state battery technology until some time next decade at the earliest.
Cars may not be the first logical application. Planes are a much more lucrative target where the price of the batteries won't be as much of an issue and the increased safety and energy density are highly desirable properties. And the market is much smaller, making it possible to target it with a bit more modest infrastructure. There are several electrical planes in or near production right now where e.g. 2x capacity increase would be very meaningful in terms of range. E.g. Bye Air just announced a 500 mile, eight seat twin prop a few days ago. It's not going to be cheap. It would make perfect sense to use relatively expensive batteries in such a plane.
Stationary storage is not an obvious initial market for solid state batteries either until they become dirt cheap and mass produced. Energy density is just much less of a concern for those and instead cost per watt is going to be the key driver there. For commercial vehicles and (taxis, trucks, vans, heavy equipment), charging speed and cost are the main drivers.
Faster charging speeds means capacity becomes less important. If you can top up a 500 mile battery in 10-20 minutes, maybe a 200 mile battery is good enough for most. You can get that capacity with most EVs today and charging times are getting there as well. I know I don't last that long without a bath room break at least. Solid state batteries will be nice to have in this market but not essential.
IMHO solid state high performance batteries will find their way into EVs eventually probably starting with high end, overpriced vehicles.
From the lab to mass production in a giga factory while being cost competitive with other solutions is not something that is going to happen overnight, regardless how good the technology is. It requires lots of investment, planning, prototyping, etc.
However, there are several companies gearing up to start battery production around the 2025-2030 time frame that are targeting mass production that have had lots of investment and are at this point beyond the prototype stage. This includes companies backed by car vendors including Toyota, VW, GM, etc. to the extend of many billions. That suggests that if their collective efforts pay off, we could see solid state batteries creeping into the market over the next eight years. I don't expect it to displace current non solid state battery technology until some time next decade at the earliest.
Cars may not be the first logical application. Planes are a much more lucrative target where the price of the batteries won't be as much of an issue and the increased safety and energy density are highly desirable properties. And the market is much smaller, making it possible to target it with a bit more modest infrastructure. There are several electrical planes in or near production right now where e.g. 2x capacity increase would be very meaningful in terms of range. E.g. Bye Air just announced a 500 mile, eight seat twin prop a few days ago. It's not going to be cheap. It would make perfect sense to use relatively expensive batteries in such a plane.
Stationary storage is not an obvious initial market for solid state batteries either until they become dirt cheap and mass produced. Energy density is just much less of a concern for those and instead cost per watt is going to be the key driver there. For commercial vehicles and (taxis, trucks, vans, heavy equipment), charging speed and cost are the main drivers.
Faster charging speeds means capacity becomes less important. If you can top up a 500 mile battery in 10-20 minutes, maybe a 200 mile battery is good enough for most. You can get that capacity with most EVs today and charging times are getting there as well. I know I don't last that long without a bath room break at least. Solid state batteries will be nice to have in this market but not essential.
IMHO solid state high performance batteries will find their way into EVs eventually probably starting with high end, overpriced vehicles.