Reported accident statistics in self driving mode. I said "likely" because I have no statistics for human drivers that are granular enough to allow a precise comparison.

> By considering only automated and mnual driving you exclude basically all possibilities.

I'm not comparing Autopilot to some hypothetical future system. I'm trying to determine whether the risk from Autopilot is comparable to human drivers as they drive now, because insurance companies have clearly shown that this is something they're willing to put up with.