Re:Few realistic scenarios left to limit global warming to 1...
by makomk on Saturday May 15, 2021 @05:15PM
(#27169100)
From what I recall, RCP 4.5 is closer to "status quo" than "optimistic" at least for a while yet.
Re:Few realistic scenarios left to limit global warming to 1...
by kaybe on Saturday May 15, 2021 @09:26PM
(#27170440)
I agree. The authors probably had a bad day.
Conferences can be depressing. The IPCC reports contain the very basic rock-solid consensus of what can be expected, but while playing around with data and models things can look much scarier.
Bastin et al, Understanding climate change from a global analysis of city analogues:
https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal...
"Even under an optimistic climate scenario (RCP 4.5), we found that 77% of future cities are very likely to experience a climate that is closer to that of another existing city than to its own current climate. In addition, 22% of cities will experience climate conditions that are not currently experienced by any existing major cities. "
"We notably predict that Madrid’s climate in 2050 will resemble Marrakech’s climate today, Stockholm will resemble Budapest, London to Barcelona, Moscow to Sofia, Seattle to San Francisco, Tokyo to Changsha."
The information might not be new, but the way it is presented is quite tangible, since many people have an understanding of today's conditions in different cities.