The theory that they're overindexing on protecting that credibility doesn't really comport with their behavior the rest of pandemic, however. Leaving aside all of the blood on the hands of mindless bureaucracy (like effectively banning testing for Covid in the early pandemic when it was most crucial), there has been decision after decision that prioritized status quo bias and RCT-worship even when the long game suggests it would damage their credibility (the fervent anti-mask recommendations in the early pandemic is a great example, as is the bizarre insistence on recommending precautions against fomites over aerosols until extremely late).

More importantly, "public health is misleading you at the cost of your health/life because they're playing the long game" doesn't actually preserve much credibility. It certainly casts public health figures in a more positive light, but I'm not really thinking in terms of blaming individuals over institutions/cultures anyway. It doesn't really matter _why_ public health advice is wrong in obvious and significant ways. What matters is the ultimate conclusion: if you have basic scientific literacy and an IQ over 105, form your own broad understanding of the science. This isn't a call to jettison epistemic humility: you're not going to be able to understand things anywhere close to as well as an individual epidemiologist can. But the point is that listening to the science as filtered through public health advice _is even worse_, in the same way that getting nutrition advice from the USDA will.