I think it's well understood that deaths in India are massively underreported.

California and New York both came close to having their health care systems overwhelmed in certain counties, Florida did not. That's exactly my point.

> There's no statistical evidence that countries with stricter lockdowns had a lower death rate than those without.

Honestly, you would expect it to be the other way around. Lockdowns are a last-resort tool to prevent healthcare systems from being overwhelmed. You would expect areas that implement lockdowns to be either denser (thus, hypothetically having less warning time between rising case counts and hospital saturation) or, more likely, to have an existing large scale Covid problem that they need to get under control.

Lockdowns are correlated with bad Covid outcomes because lockdowns are implemented in places that are liable to, or are already having, bad Covid problems.

The signals I'm seeing from India strongly suggest that their death rate is massively under-reported.

http://www.healthdata.org/special-analysis/estimation-excess...

Death rate per capita I think is a misleading way to look at it. If covid wipes half of my say 10 ppl family and half of someone else’s say 4 ppl family, I lose 5 ppl and they lose 2 ppl. Per capita rate is fine for statisticians after the fact. But during the pandemic you can’t tell me we lost same ppl per capita. Obviously I lost much more (hypothetically)