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Re:Vaccinated Americans now may go without masks in most pla... by flukus on Friday May 14, 2021 @02:10AM (#27151249)
> they aren't necessary, they're only effective at preventing the spread of COVID if the wearer has a medical degree, don't wear masks on planes, etc

Everyone seems to also forget that a lot of this took place when they wrongly thought surface transmission was the main vector. The bigger problem was the delay in recognizing aerosol transmission, Chinese scientists cottoned on to this very early but the CDC and WHO dragged their feet.

We also saw everything play out and get politicized in real time in a way that's never happened before. There are lags between data and science, further lags between science and science communication and then even more from science communication to government policy. On one end of this lag you've got scientist warning of aerosol transmission, on the other side you've got Fauci still operating under the surface transmission advice leading to some very mixed messaging. Reducing this lag will be important in future.

Re:Vaccinated Americans now may go without masks in most pla... by bonzini on Friday May 14, 2021 @02:53AM (#27151521)
> Chinese scientists cottoned on to this very early

China didn't even admit human to human transmission until mid January.

They haven't even admitted when the outbreak started, which almost certainly wasn't November 2019 since there are suspect cases in Europe already at the beginning of December, of people that had never been in Wuhan.

Re:Vaccinated Americans now may go without masks in most pla... by em500 on Friday May 14, 2021 @03:04AM (#27151586)
> there are suspect cases in Europe already at the beginning of December, of people that had never been in Wuhan.

If this is true, then it's not a given that COVID-19 even originated in China.

Re:Vaccinated Americans now may go without masks in most pla... by mensetmanusman on Friday May 14, 2021 @06:48AM (#27152849)
The not-China origin idea is fringe at the moment.
Re:Vaccinated Americans now may go without masks in most pla... by carlmr on Friday May 14, 2021 @03:41AM (#27151788)
It's not a given, but it's also not a given that it originated in Europe or anywhere else for that matter. Plane travel makes it possible for a virus to be anywhere in the world on the same day.
Re:Vaccinated Americans now may go without masks in most pla... by drran on Friday May 14, 2021 @04:59AM (#27152254)
Two patients with SARS-CoV-2 in France[0] on November 16, one in China[1] on November 17, and the whole epidemic in Russia[2] on November 19.

This new study of scanners identified two cases of suspected coronavirus, on November 16 and 17

[0]: https://www.francetvinfo.fr/sante/maladie/coronavirus/corona...

China’s first confirmed Covid-19 case traced back to November 17

[1]: https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3074991/coro...

The outbreak of pneumonia was recorded in the Orenburg region

(Turn on captions, then select Captions -> Automatic translation -> English)

[2]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nMh11FtfaP0

Re:Vaccinated Americans now may go without masks in most pla... by shard on Friday May 14, 2021 @04:51AM (#27152208)
Chinese scientists figured out that most colds, flu, and other respiratory illnesses spread through aerosols back in 2003 during the SARS outbreak, if I understand this article correctly: https://www.wired.com/story/the-teeny-tiny-scientific-screwu...
Re:Vaccinated Americans now may go without masks in most pla... by flukus on Friday May 14, 2021 @03:02AM (#27151569)
> China didn't even admit human to human transmission until mid January.

Because it was even newer and more unknown at that point. Wuhan was in lockdown on the 23rd of January, so they had a pretty good idea by then. Meanwhile the rest of the world twiddled their thumbs and lost the opportunity to contain it.

> They haven't even admitted when the outbreak started, which almost certainly wasn't November 2019

How do you "admit" something unknown? Either way we know it couldn't have been too much before November/December, considering everything we know about how fast it spreads.

Re:Vaccinated Americans now may go without masks in most pla... by cycomanic on Friday May 14, 2021 @03:45AM (#27151811)
> How do you "admit" something unknown? Either way we know it couldn't have been too much before November/December, considering everything we know about how fast it spreads.

Actually, this is not so clear. The evidence of community cases in November/December in e.g. France were not picked up at the time either. There is a phase were a new disease can fly completely under the radar, because we are still in a very slow growth and only see a few isolated cases, which often don't even get seen by the same health professionals. This is particularly true in the case of covid were there is evidence that spreading is disproportionately from "superspreaders" (unless some of that information changed now?). So unless there was a superspreader, you only have few isolated cases.

Re:Vaccinated Americans now may go without masks in most pla... by unishark on Friday May 14, 2021 @07:24AM (#27153053)
It wasn't completely under the radar though. Doctors in China were thinking it was a "mere" SARS outbreak, which was fairly close to correct. However concern about public health was not the top priority of the govt.
Re:Vaccinated Americans now may go without masks in most pla... by flukus on Friday May 14, 2021 @05:26AM (#27152404)
If that's the case then China doesn't even have anything to admit, it could have come Frome anywhere.
Re:Vaccinated Americans now may go without masks in most pla... by stjohnswarts on Friday May 14, 2021 @05:56AM (#27152568)
Everything points at Wuhan currently. That’s not even a question at this point
Re:Vaccinated Americans now may go without masks in most pla... by bonzini on Friday May 14, 2021 @07:57AM (#27153258)
Taiwan was pretty sure there was human to human transmission on Dec 31, 2019 after their secretary of health had been in Wuhan for a week or so, so China most likely had figured it out at least a month earlier. Maybe they hid it because were too busy jailing doctors?