I think the calculation was wrong. It's not a question of whether being outdoors was safe or not, it's about whether or not it's safer than gathering indoors. Instead, they naively thought that closing outdoor gathering spaces would leave people with no option besides privately quarantining rather than--predictably--gathering indoors away from regulators. And while we didn't know precisely how much safer it was to be outdoors than indoors, we certainly knew that it was quite a lot safer.