News for hackers. Stuff that matters.
Re:A new book, Amazon Unbound, reveals Jeff Bezos’ envy of S... by marktangotango on Tuesday May 11, 2021 @11:56AM (#27119680)
I've been puzzled at Blue Origins lack of progress, particularly with orbital class vehicles. they've got an engine developed (BE-4) that's pretty good, and going to be used by ULA apparently. But otherwise, development on New Glenn seems to be stagnant. Are they making progress, only not publicly, like Spacex? Seems Spacex is executing at a tremendous level, easy to believe a competitor could have trouble keeping the pace.
Re:A new book, Amazon Unbound, reveals Jeff Bezos’ envy of S... by Veedrac on Tuesday May 11, 2021 @12:05PM (#27119812)
People have a really weird idea of the timelines here. Blue Origin's first serious rocket was New Shepard, launched in 2015. It has been six years since then, and New Glenn, a rocket more ambitious than SLS or Vulcan Centaur or even Falcon 9, is due in under two years. The rocket has been delayed, but only by two years, which is typical for rockets of any sort, even SpaceX rockets.

This is not a weirdly slow pace.

The reason Blue Origin is behind SpaceX is that SpaceX built their first serious rocket in 2006, 9 years before New Shepard. Blue Origin was founded a long time ago but they spent most of that as a low-budget think-tank style operation.

Timeline: https://www.reddit.com/r/BlueOrigin/comments/n6a1dd/sn15_nai...

Re:A new book, Amazon Unbound, reveals Jeff Bezos’ envy of S... by freshair on Tuesday May 11, 2021 @12:56PM (#27120446)
As a "serious rocket", New Shepard falls well short of Falcon 1, which made orbit 13 years ago. Blue Origin still hasn't put anything into space.

Of New Shepard development, wikipedia tells me "Prototype engine and vehicle flights began in 2006, while full-scale engine development started in the early 2010s and was complete by 2015.[5] Uncrewed flight testing of the complete New Shepard vehicle (propulsion module and space capsule) began in 2015."

Well SpaceX was founded in 2002, giving them what, a 4 year head start on New Shepard? That 4 year gap has grown much wider since then.. SpaceX got to orbit 6 years after they were founded, while Blue Origin is at 21 years and counting.

Re:A new book, Amazon Unbound, reveals Jeff Bezos’ envy of S... by spfzero on Tuesday May 11, 2021 @01:43PM (#27121079)
Didn't Blue Origin, as a company, start 2 years before Space X did? This is the strange part to me. Blue Origin started sooner, has a billion dollars a year of cash from Bezos, and still seems pretty far behind. I'm hoping New Glenn is everything it is planned to be, and arrives soon. More competition would be great.

I do like Space-X's test and manufacturing iteration process though, and think it gives them an edge. Not to mention the shear amount of experience they've gained with so many actual launches.

Re:A new book, Amazon Unbound, reveals Jeff Bezos’ envy of S... by neaanopri on Tuesday May 11, 2021 @01:31PM (#27120905)
I'm not sure if I agree that New Shepard isn't a "serious rocket".

Falcon 1 has a low payload (small satellite) with medium energy (LEO).

New Shepard has a medium payload (crew capsule) with low energy (suborbital).

As far as "similar to a large orbital launch vehicle", you can rank them as:

New Shepard < Falcon 1 < Falcon 9 < New Glenn

BO is definitely trying to "skip steps", but I think that the US space industry as a whole is certainly better off for Blue Origin existing.

As far as the BE-4, the single largest technical risk for a launch vehicle is the engine, and using an engine which will already be in use (for Vulcan) looks smart to me. Yes there are delays, but aren't there always?

Re:A new book, Amazon Unbound, reveals Jeff Bezos’ envy of S... by freshair on Tuesday May 11, 2021 @01:40PM (#27121032)
Manned suborbital launches are little more than glorified pogo-stick rides. This has been true ever since America tossed Alan Shepard into the air as desperate PR damage control after the Soviets put Yuri Gagarin into orbit.

If nothing else, "New Shepard" is appropriately named.

Re:A new book, Amazon Unbound, reveals Jeff Bezos’ envy of S... by DennisP on Wednesday May 12, 2021 @07:39AM (#27129131)
Wow that's pretty funny. I never knew Shepard's flight was suborbital. Just verified it on wiki. I guess that was pretty effective PR!

For anyone unaware: getting to orbit is 25 times harder than just getting to space.

Re:A new book, Amazon Unbound, reveals Jeff Bezos’ envy of S... by Veedrac on Wednesday May 12, 2021 @09:13AM (#27129953)
*In propellant terms, for an equal payload, for a SSTO

These are important qualifiers. Realistically if you tightened up the mass fraction on New Shepard, abandoned reuse, and added a second stage, the technology could probably put a small payload into orbit just fine. I'm not sure what the point would be, since it would ruin all the useful things New Shepard is doing as a pathfinder.

Re:A new book, Amazon Unbound, reveals Jeff Bezos’ envy of S... by Diederich on Tuesday May 11, 2021 @02:14PM (#27121475)
New Shepard < Falcon 1 < Falcon 9 < New Glenn

Where does Falcon Heavy fit in that progression?

Re:A new book, Amazon Unbound, reveals Jeff Bezos’ envy of S... by Veedrac on Tuesday May 11, 2021 @03:14PM (#27122256)
Falcon Heavy technically has a little more payload to LEO than New Glenn, but it's stuck with an extremely undersized fairing for that job, so really it's better treated as Falcon 9 that's able to go further out. For the bulk of the market, New Glenn is more capable.
Re:A new book, Amazon Unbound, reveals Jeff Bezos’ envy of S... by Veedrac on Tuesday May 11, 2021 @01:33PM (#27120929)
Yes, SpaceX moved fast in its early years; Musk threw everything he could afford at the project and raced to the finish line, whereas Blue Origin only really stepped into high gear very recently.

It's true that Blue Origin started early stage work around the time you say, but you should keep in mind the sort of projects they were. Charon was a few Rolls-Royce engines connected by a metal lattice. Goddard was a conical capsule that flew to 85m. This was not anything close to the levels of effort that SpaceX was putting in with Falcon 1 and Falcon 9.

Re:A new book, Amazon Unbound, reveals Jeff Bezos’ envy of S... by philwelch on Tuesday May 11, 2021 @01:36PM (#27120975)
New Shepard can’t even reach orbit, and New Glenn is, as you say, “a rocket more ambitious than SLS or Vulcan Centaur or even Falcon 9”. That’s a massive concern and I strongly believe that “due in under two years” goal is going to be missed.

When New Glenn actually does exist though, it won’t be competing with F9 and SLS; it’ll be competing with Starship.

Re:A new book, Amazon Unbound, reveals Jeff Bezos’ envy of S... by marktangotango on Tuesday May 11, 2021 @10:34PM (#27125980)
New Glenn won't be the same class, Blue Origins BFR is New Armstrong which is even further away than New Glenn.
Re:A new book, Amazon Unbound, reveals Jeff Bezos’ envy of S... by philwelch on Tuesday May 11, 2021 @11:04PM (#27126139)
That's my point though. Starship will be ready around the same time New Glenn is, and completely outclasses it.
Re:A new book, Amazon Unbound, reveals Jeff Bezos’ envy of S... by nickik on Tuesday May 11, 2021 @02:43PM (#27121884)
They started development in 2012. It was planned to be 2020 and it has already been delayed to Q4 of 2022 and that actually means 2023. And the timeline slide could very easily continue.

But the thing is that BlueOrigin has spend a gigantic amount of money compared to Falcon 9. Its not close.

They are not spending SLS money, but their budget is huge and they made very aggressive public targets and stuck to them for a long time. Then they blamed the military on them missing their target.

Re:A new book, Amazon Unbound, reveals Jeff Bezos’ envy of S... by Veedrac on Tuesday May 11, 2021 @03:17PM (#27122286)
Blue Origin has spent ~$2.5B on New Glenn infrastructure, including the factory and launch structures, and likely under a billion on New Shepard. This is perhaps a bit more than SpaceX would have needed, but not by all that much.
Re:A new book, Amazon Unbound, reveals Jeff Bezos’ envy of S... by travisporter on Tuesday May 11, 2021 @11:59AM (#27119722)
Eric Berger has an article on this. He is definitely a big spacex fan but does fairly objective reporting imo. https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/03/so-what-really-happe...
Re:A new book, Amazon Unbound, reveals Jeff Bezos’ envy of S... by Beached on Tuesday May 11, 2021 @12:00PM (#27119745)
they aren't really making progress behind closed doors. there was a video tour of their new glenn factory floor when they were showing off the hls mock up, it looked mostly the se.as it did years ago, before spacex even launched heavy or even announced starship.

I think the main difference is that spacex had a do or die mentality I. the beginning. Elon had money, but not endless amounts like besos or like he has currently. they literally were going to close up shop due to money, and got a last minute one last attempt to make falcon 1 lunch work. blue origin has never had the need to test things, it's just a bunch of engineers gooing over cad files and no need to go to orbit because they will never go bust.

Re:A new book, Amazon Unbound, reveals Jeff Bezos’ envy of S... by UnpossibleJim on Tuesday May 11, 2021 @01:01PM (#27120488)
I'm not sure that, that "succeed or die" mentality/necessity is really a bad thing, at least in the beginning. I can't speak to space programs, per se, but as far as software start ups, so many of them are great as slim companies who have to produce but fail to transition once they are bought out and become an overlarge, corporate goliath with deep pockets and room to fail. Without the sword of Damocles, as it were, the finish line can continue to be pushed back and the specs can be changed. It can stay academic.
Re:A new book, Amazon Unbound, reveals Jeff Bezos’ envy of S... by pinewurst on Tuesday May 11, 2021 @01:13PM (#27120665)
What I've heard is that Blue Origin is much more Big Aerospace in hiring, philosophy, and process than SpaceX. Being faster than Boeing, sadly, isn't the same as being fast.
Re:A new book, Amazon Unbound, reveals Jeff Bezos’ envy of S... by BitwiseFool on Tuesday May 11, 2021 @12:08PM (#27119852)
I can't help but think their slow and steady wins the race philosophy has led to their stagnation. Blue Origin's motto is "Gradatim Ferociter", Latin for "Step by Step, Ferociously". And I suspect having Jeff Bezos's massive hoard of cash takes away some of the pressure to perform or perish.
Re:A new book, Amazon Unbound, reveals Jeff Bezos’ envy of S... by freshair on Tuesday May 11, 2021 @12:48PM (#27120358)
> slow and steady wins the race

It's a popular saying but a lot of people don't seem to recall the parable. A slow and steady tortoise only wins the race if the rabbit sprints a little bit but then gets too cocky and decides to take a nap and rest for a while (or gets stuck for some other reason.) If the fast rabbit keeps moving forward unrelentingly, then the slow tortoise doesn't stand a snowball's chance in hell.

So far, SpaceX has been a rabbit that doesn't stop to take breaks. In scenarios like this, "slow and steady" becomes little more than a lame excuse for moving slow, not a legitimate plan to get ahead.

Re:A new book, Amazon Unbound, reveals Jeff Bezos’ envy of S... by philwelch on Tuesday May 11, 2021 @01:47PM (#27121124)
I actually don’t think Blue’s process has actually followed their motto though. Building a reusable Saturn V-class rocket as your first orbital vehicle is not “step by step”. Step by step is how I’d describe the process for Starship; the first prototypes looked suspiciously like stainless steel grain silos, and their development progress is measured by how much they can do with the thing before it blows up.
Re:A new book, Amazon Unbound, reveals Jeff Bezos’ envy of S... by raister on Tuesday May 11, 2021 @12:12PM (#27119908)
I don't want to be 'that guy', but a slight better translation is "Ferociously gradual".
Re:A new book, Amazon Unbound, reveals Jeff Bezos’ envy of S... by BitwiseFool on Tuesday May 11, 2021 @01:24PM (#27120802)
I just pulled it from an article on Wikipedia. I speak no Latin.