“The parts that don’t have a pin compatible substitute” is usually 80% of your total BOM cost. It’s not a helpful clarification.

Let’s take something totally ordinary like an STM32 MCU, and let’s ignore for a moment that there are now some clones on the market, with questionable compatibility at times.

Even though they’re unique parts, there is no way anybody sane would stock up on those for the lifetime of a product revision.

It was never needed and it’s ridiculous to plan for a black swan event like the one we’re experiencing now.

And here’s why: even if you had planned for a sudden shortage of an STM32, you’d still be screwed on some generic components. Because I’ve seen people get stuck recently because they couldn’t source certain generic diodes.

It makes no financial sense to always plan for the worst possible case. The whole reason distributors exist is because they are the buffer that moderates spikes in supply and demand.

The system has worked very well for decades. It’s much better to be right or wrong along with everybody else than to be wrong 99% of the time (and waste margins compared to the competition), and being able to say “I told you so” to the rest once.

And that 99% is not hyperbole.

I’ve been stocking up on various chips and components for the last month. Almost grabbed some STM32s. Maybe if I can find them.

I have this growing gut feeling we are at the peak of technology... at least for a while.

On the other hand, I expect this whole mess to propel technology way forward, especially the microchip market. Everyone can now see that there is extreme demand for it and what is compatibility and standardization good for.

You and a bunch of others, and now all the supermarkets are out of toilet paper.

Not really. I have a lot of musical equipment. The chips I have are relatively uncommon. Not toilet paper. I’ve only got enough to duplicate things and keep them running if need be. I suspect what I will have will last around end of my life. Enough to just keep things going.

I’m not a hoarder, I’ve kept my focus limited and goals clear.

But you’re an assumptive a*hat.

Guilty as charged. I was part joking, part serious. I've had to order more than immediately needed capacity a couple of times in my life to tide over expected difficulties in getting timely equipment. Either managers who were slow at approving things or (today) expected shipping delays meaning I need enough capacity for the expected next year rather than expected next 2 months. Multiply that by everyone, you get a rush on the bank.

Interestingly I saw an analysis a while back (citation not provided because I'm about to go sleep and have an early start tomorrow) that just the change in demand from office to home could account for a lot of the increased toilet paper demand. People were still shitting the same amount but they were using home-grade rolls rather than industrial giant office rolls, of which there was a glut!

Alrighty. Well, I just remember last years run on toilet paper. It was a “why?”, people buying much more than needed. I don’t wanna be one of them.

I still say “stock up” though at least for what you can actually plan to use. Just like the above with toilet paper, supply-chains are going funky.