Re:Estimation of total mortality due to COVID-19
by teachingassist on Sunday May 09, 2021 @09:59AM
(#27095939)
> a holdout set of prospective data, where you actually predict the future, blindly, and see how you do.
According to your theory, publishing would act as a 'nothing up my sleeve' validation of their model.
Since, you can check this model in the future - you can do it for yourself.
And yet, you seem to be complaining about this publication?
(I still don't agree with this as a principle - since I wouldn't now expect the future to reflect the past, and the authors make no claim to predictive powers when they are identifying that the present is unlike the past)
According to your theory, publishing would act as a 'nothing up my sleeve' validation of their model.
Since, you can check this model in the future - you can do it for yourself.
And yet, you seem to be complaining about this publication?
(I still don't agree with this as a principle - since I wouldn't now expect the future to reflect the past, and the authors make no claim to predictive powers when they are identifying that the present is unlike the past)