Re:The Time Everyone “Corrected” the World’s Smartest Woman ...
by denton-scratch on Sunday May 09, 2021 @09:13AM
(#27095684)
"Now it's obvious that the car is in the remaining door."
No. It could be behind the one you chose, surely.
I understand the explanations, or at least some of them; but I still don't get it. I thought I was intelligent and numerate, and this is making me sad.
I don't see why, after Monty reveals a goat and invites you to switch, you can't re-assess the probabilities from scratch. There are two closed doors, car behind one, goat behind the other, and you have no evidence which is which; therefore 50:50.
No. It could be behind the one you chose, surely.
I understand the explanations, or at least some of them; but I still don't get it. I thought I was intelligent and numerate, and this is making me sad.
I don't see why, after Monty reveals a goat and invites you to switch, you can't re-assess the probabilities from scratch. There are two closed doors, car behind one, goat behind the other, and you have no evidence which is which; therefore 50:50.