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A comment on The Time Everyone “Corrected” the World’s Smartest Woman (2015). Parent comment

Re:The Time Everyone “Corrected” the World’s Smartest Woman ... by graderjs on Sunday May 09, 2021 @03:36AM (#27094024)
I still don't think I really "get" it, but this explanation makes the most sense to me. Thanks!

Like of course I would switch and go for the coin toss, but I don't know how to convert that certainty into actually probabilities, tho I'm sure that the odds of my choices are not 1/3 versus 1/2, because there's probably some interplay.

If I think about it more I start to get confused again, along the lines of: does the first choice even matter then? and what if I reverse my first and second choices (as in I pick 1, then switch to 3, but what if I picked 3 then switched to 1), how can I still have better odds by switching, since there's only 1 right answer? But sticking with the coin toss, I feel, "OK this makes sense."

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Re:The Time Everyone “Corrected” the World’s Smartest Woman ... by mercer on Sunday May 09, 2021 @04:01AM (#27094150)
the first choice matters insofar that you can choose to stick with it, so while the coin toss in isolation is 50/50, for the game as a whole you need to consider the option of sticking with that initial 1 in 3 chance along side the 1 in 2 chance.
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