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A comment on The Time Everyone “Corrected” the World’s Smartest Woman (2015). Parent comment

Re:The Time Everyone “Corrected” the World’s Smartest Woman ... by spenczar5 on Saturday May 08, 2021 @10:55PM (#27092790)
This is a small enough situation that we can do complete enumeration of the states.

Let's say you pick door 1. Let's go through all the possibilities: the states of the 3 doors, which one monty reveals, and what do we do, and what is the result?

  1 | 2 | 3 || Monty Reveals | You switch | Result
  ---------------------------------------------------
  G | G | C ||      2        | Yes        |  Win
  G | G | C ||      2        | No         |  Lose
  G | G | C ||      3        | N/A        |  Start Over
  
  G | C | G ||      2        | N/A        |  Start Over
  G | C | G ||      3        | Yes        |  Win
  G | C | G ||      3        | No         |  Lose
  
  C | G | G ||      2        | Yes        |  Lose
  C | G | G ||      2        | No         |  Win
  C | G | G ||      3        | Yes        |  Lose
  C | G | G ||      3        | No         |  Win
Count 'em up: When you switch, 2 wins and 2 losses. When you don't, 2 wins and 2 losses. Of course, the situation is symmetrical for any starting guess you make.
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Re:The Time Everyone “Corrected” the World’s Smartest Woman ... by tomerv on Sunday May 09, 2021 @01:24AM (#27093460)
You are not enumerating the options correctly. You have 3 rows for the GGC and GCG options but 4 for the CGG option, which is assigning the CGG option higher probability. In reality, they have equal weight.
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Re:The Time Everyone “Corrected” the World’s Smartest Woman ... by spenczar5 on Sunday May 09, 2021 @09:35AM (#27095790)
Agh, you are right. There should be two “start over” rows in each of GGC and GCG. I can’t write “N/A;” we must say “yes/no” in those.

Doesn’t change the result though.

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Re:The Time Everyone “Corrected” the World’s Smartest Woman ... by mortehu on Saturday May 08, 2021 @11:17PM (#27092920)
What would this table look like if Monty always revealed a goat? Would any win or lose row be added or removed?

I know the result is right, but I don't think this table illustrates the reason.

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