If you look at SF market history, you see mostly rapid growth with short term declines from peaks which are quickly erased.

Is there risk? Sure, but its hard to find a 5-10 year period where you lose even if you hit the bottom of one of the drops, which are usually only a year or two from the peak.

10 years to recover from 2006 peak, not adjusting for inflation.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SFXRSA

Right, so if you pick the absolute worst moment to buy, you still make a profit in 10 years. Sounds like a good bet to me, especially considering you have to live somewhere and pay rent or a mortgage.

No, you’d break even after 10 years, actually less than even due to inflation. Then add on top maintenance, property taxes, opportunity cost of your down payment (market was up 107% over that period).

Again, not saying you can make good money but there is no reason why the opposite can’t happen.

No one is saying it’s a sure thing, but the fact that you have to pick the absolute worst time, and it still is a positive return over ten years, really proves it’s a good bet.

There are exceptions for sure, Detroit for example. But they are exceptions.

And yes, you need a ten year time horizon for the risk to be small. By 2014 the SF home prices were above the peak in 2007.