Re:Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U....
by rsynnott on Monday May 03, 2021 @03:24PM
(#27029566)
> so if B.1.1.7 is less lethal, why would the transmissibility play in?
I mean, if it was a _lot_ less lethal, and became permanently dominant, then the problem goes away. I think your mistake is in assuming that it is less lethal. What gave you that idea? It is believed to probably be _more_ lethal.
> Also why isn't immunization from natural infection counting?
It 'counts', but less so than vaccine immunity, because some variants defeat it while not defeating most vaccines (there's some messiness at the edges here; for instance AZ may not work very well for the South African variant).
I mean, if it was a _lot_ less lethal, and became permanently dominant, then the problem goes away. I think your mistake is in assuming that it is less lethal. What gave you that idea? It is believed to probably be _more_ lethal.
> Also why isn't immunization from natural infection counting?
It 'counts', but less so than vaccine immunity, because some variants defeat it while not defeating most vaccines (there's some messiness at the edges here; for instance AZ may not work very well for the South African variant).