Re:A Gambler Who Cracked the Horse-Racing Code (2018)
by ackbar03 on Sunday May 02, 2021 @12:02PM
(#27016350)
So basically the model was just a single layer neural net with extra proprietary data?
Re:A Gambler Who Cracked the Horse-Racing Code (2018)
by Spooky23 on Sunday May 02, 2021 @02:03PM
(#27017348)
Data and meaning is the key.
I had a coworker who would prepare for weeks for stakes races and follow a few second tier horses as well. Twitter made some aspects easier as there is a racetrack Twitter community. His specialty was identifying exactas where a long shot would place or win with a favorite.
He’d pay people to film workout at Belmont and Saratoga and tweak his model (an Excel spreadsheet) based on what he saw. He would have a sense based on the workouts, weather, etc and would pick 4-10 races a week.
Re:A Gambler Who Cracked the Horse-Racing Code (2018)
by teddykoker on Sunday May 02, 2021 @01:14PM
(#27016914)
Yup! Just a multinomial logistic regression model with a bunch of proprietary data and engineered features.
About a year ago I read this and attempted to build a similar model (with more layers ;)) using data I scraped from Hong Kong Jockey Club’s website. Although I used much fewer features, it still produced profit in held-out races: https://teddykoker.com/2019/12/beating-the-odds-machine-lear.... Obviously there are many caveats when backtesting like this but I thought it was a fun project!