Not FUD. I'm farming Chia myself but it looks pretty hopeless so just giving my honest review that no-one should expect to win any reward anytime soon without betting big on hardware.

Regarding the calculation and estimation: "Actual results may take 3 to 4 times longer than this estimate."

So 10 months to 3 years to win one single block which will give you 2 XCH. Considering the total network space rising at the rate we're seeing I think we should review this calculation again in a week.