All of the available evidence demonstrates that even experienced fund managers with access to extensive, expensive, and focused research on the companies they invest in perform no better on average than VTSAX.

Further, there’s no strategy to find the winning fund managers. The distribution of winners and losers over time seems to be exactly what you’d expect from random chance, and even fund managers who’ve been successful for years have the exact same odds of having their next year be awful as anyone else.