Re:Stock Market Returns Are Anything but Average
by kqr on Friday April 30, 2021 @01:22PM
(#26996406)
Yes, and you can expect relatively steady compounding returns at the risk-free rate (the clue is in the name.)
When you see return rates higher than the risk-free rates that still seem like they exhibit low variance, then one of two things are true:
1. Either you have found something that produces way too much reward for its level of risk. This is for anything publicly traded somewhat unlikely.
2. Or you have found something that's prone to rare, but incredibly big swings. The fatter the tails, the more likely it is you'll get a long, good run followed by something that completely wipes you out.
When you see return rates higher than the risk-free rates that still seem like they exhibit low variance, then one of two things are true:
1. Either you have found something that produces way too much reward for its level of risk. This is for anything publicly traded somewhat unlikely.
2. Or you have found something that's prone to rare, but incredibly big swings. The fatter the tails, the more likely it is you'll get a long, good run followed by something that completely wipes you out.