Re:Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic
by dragonwriter on Thursday April 29, 2021 @09:25PM
(#26988902)
>>Small but important correction: nothing can make epidemiological spread non-exponential.
“Exponential with R varying over time” and “not exponential” differ only in interpretation imposed by an observer.
> infection is simply an exponential process
No, in the hyperidealized perfect mixing scenario, its a logistic process, like most other resource constrained processed that look exponential when analyzed over a dhort period.
In the real world, its neither exponential nor even perfectly logistic, even before considering changes to the environment in which the disease spreads (including those induced by the disease, including people’s response to knowledge of it.)
“Exponential with R varying over time” and “not exponential” differ only in interpretation imposed by an observer.
> infection is simply an exponential process
No, in the hyperidealized perfect mixing scenario, its a logistic process, like most other resource constrained processed that look exponential when analyzed over a dhort period.
In the real world, its neither exponential nor even perfectly logistic, even before considering changes to the environment in which the disease spreads (including those induced by the disease, including people’s response to knowledge of it.)