Re:Excess Deaths in 2020
by JoeData on Thursday April 29, 2021 @01:11PM
(#26983790)
Short answer: In the U.S., 12 standard deviations.
In the U.S., deaths were 16%-17% higher than expected. The death rate was 17.8% higher than in 2019. Excess deaths were higher in 1918, but every other year since 1900 is lower.
Using 1946-2019 as our sample, the average yearly change in death rate is -0.2% with a standard deviation of about 1.47 (percentage points). The biggest increase in this year range was 3.1% (2.2σ).
If we go back before the antibiotic era, the biggest one-year increases are in 1918 (29.3%) and 1929 (7.2%). Note that statistics before 1933 don't include all states.
Re:Excess Deaths in 2020
by DataDaoDe on Thursday April 29, 2021 @05:35PM
(#26987090)
Thanks! That blog post was an interesting read, age adjusted mortality rates was something that hadn't occurred to me as someone unfamiliar with this type of data.
In the U.S., deaths were 16%-17% higher than expected. The death rate was 17.8% higher than in 2019. Excess deaths were higher in 1918, but every other year since 1900 is lower.
Using 1946-2019 as our sample, the average yearly change in death rate is -0.2% with a standard deviation of about 1.47 (percentage points). The biggest increase in this year range was 3.1% (2.2σ).
If we go back before the antibiotic era, the biggest one-year increases are in 1918 (29.3%) and 1929 (7.2%). Note that statistics before 1933 don't include all states.
For some other ways of looking at the data, here's an economists blog post: https://economistwritingeveryday.com/2021/01/06/excess-morta...
(He was writing in January, so had less complete stats.)