My point is that Wout was ahead for the /entire/ duration where the front wheel intersected the camera line. The wheel's diameter is bigger than 20cm, so the moment when Wout passed the actual finish line is included in this interval. Therefore, Wout was ahead when the winner passed the actual finish line. QED.
If there was an overtake -during- the moment of the photo finish then one bicycle would eclipse the other. The overtaken cycle would be entirely longer than the overtaking bicycle.
Line judges go for wheel contact, so for an overtaking to count, the -front wheel- of the overtaking rider would have to be fully within the front wheel of the other.
As the OP demonstrates Wout was ahead even at landmarks over 20 cm from the front of the wheel the only way Tom could win was if his front wheel physically elongated over 20 cm in those last milliseconds.
The rules are the outcome of reluctant evolution since back in the 19th century, it's hardly surprising that the camera isn't necessarily considered the ultimate source of truth.
(history of techno and a road cycling race on the first lines of hn, today it's really looking as if tailored to mock my interests)
If it was nudged by a gust of wind or something, it seems very unlikely that the camera would have moved a full 20cm but remained parallel to the finish line.
The argument is that if Tom was travelling faster, the distance could have been made up in that time, potentially for a win.