Re:My experience with sexual harassment in the Scala community
by lukasb on Tuesday April 27, 2021 @09:58PM
(#26964530)
"only 4% of cases are provable one way or the other, and that those which are have a 50/50 chance of being true or false complaints."
Not prosecuted != not provable. Not provable != false.
Re:My experience with sexual harassment in the Scala community
by Grieving on Wednesday April 28, 2021 @12:17AM
(#26965536)
>Not prosecuted != not provable
Fair enough. Only 4% are known to be provable.
>Not provable != false
I neither claimed nor implied this. My point could be summed up as not provable != true.
Complaints is the key here. Obviously, we can't say much about the incidents that don't go reported. If one looks at the conviction rate for rape complaints it's around 2%. So if we take the lower estimate for false complaints, it still means that only 4% of cases are provable one way or the other, and that those which are have a 50/50 chance of being true or false complaints. (I'm looking at '92 stats, at a glance it appears the the rates for both rape and false rape convictions have risen a fair bit since then).
Interestingly, a 2% conviction rate is on par with that of robbery.
https://blogs.findlaw.com/blotter/2017/07/how-often-do-rape-...