3% was left in favour of the house buying but unlikely because the last dozen years or so are very unusual In real estate, so I used middle of the road numbers. You may lock in 3% for 5 years now but nobody is giving you that for 30 - historical averages are all about double . Very good chance that happens again over that time period but of course we don’t know . Assuming it won’t would be irrational though .

Of course past doesn’t imply the future will be the same , but I used long run averages for both stock market and housing market , so it’s fair .

Based on the spelling of favour I am assuming you are not from the US. In the US, fixed rate mortgages for between 15-30 years are very much the norm, with 30 year mortgages much more common than 15. You can absolutely get a 30 year loan up to $550k ($820k in California) for well under 3% these days.

A 5/1 ARM that changes rates after 5 years is a product you can buy, but it would only be used in niche scenarios.

I understand it is not like that in most other countries and I'm not 100% sure why. Something to do with the federal government backstopping most mortgages I think.

Fair - I bounce around a fair bit and haven’t looked in the US for about 10 years, mea culpa.

Just goes to show you have to do the non hand wavy version of this for your actual situation ; my broader point stands though.

> You may lock in 3% for 5 years now but nobody is giving you that for 30

I literally just closed on a condo last month and got a 30 year fixed rate jumbo mortgage at 3%.

I dunno. I just refinanced at 2.35%.... fixed 30 year.