I don't know. But it really should. If it turns out that it doesn't, there's something very wrong with the entire situation.

Probably but for an extreme example, look at what’s happened in Portland.

Probably not causation. Crime rates are up nationwide. NYC is seeing a spike too and we've got the most expensive police force in the world. More likely the pandemic is to blame.

In 2016, Portland had 20 murders. In 2020 they had 55 murders (50 of which happened in June or later). This year they’re on track to break 100. Crime has gone up in the nation, but not by a factor of five. Portland’s problems are very much due to Portland’s policies.

Not happening in other countries though?

It has other countries that were always bad. Western europe and asia are fine as ever. And some do it with unarmed police. Which is why it seems overwhelmingly likely to be determined by social policy (ie healthcare and gun control) and not enforcement.

> More likely the pandemic is to blame.

You mean the response to the pandemic, not the pandemic itself.

I don't know what the OP meant but I certainly would mean specifically "the pandemic is to blame".

If there were no discernable response to the pandemic from any organized institution in society there is a pretty good chance the pandemic itself could be blamed for a /lot/ of terrible things.

> If there were no discernable response to the pandemic

I think this is the point GP's making.

Probably both. 550K people are gone and we are likely experiencing a peak in fear, grief and despair. But business and school closures are probably not helping. And given the prevalence of domestic violence, quarantine is probably prison for some percentage of people.