Re:The Flu Vanished During Covid. What Will Its Return Look ...
by wahern on Thursday April 22, 2021 @05:20PM
(#26908363)
It's worth pointing out that seasonal flu tends to have a rather low R0 to begin with, especially as compared to coronaviruses and other respiratory infections.
Unlike some others in this thread here I'm probably less sanguine about a permanent change in habits. The Americas and many European countries are still as individualistic as ever, and have manifestly faired rather poorly considering their wealth. What is most likely to change, IMO, is efficacy of flu vaccines. Marginally better efficacy and marginally more voluntary vaccinations may be sufficient to push the already low R0 to below 1 at scale.
The protective measures you're each taking reduces the chance that the entire crew will get what any one of you gets. But I think the big win is likely the herd immunity wherein each of you has a lower chance of bringing it in to the office in the first place. We've all collectively reduced the R below 1 for a lot of things, and that has an exponentially beneficial effect in exactly the same way that having R above 1 was so dangerous.