Re:Two people killed in fiery Tesla crash with no one driving
by YeGoblynQueenne on Sunday April 18, 2021 @06:36PM
(#26857161)
The quoted statistics on either side are not helpful here. See:
>> Driving to Safety
>> How Many Miles of Driving Would It Take to Demonstrate Autonomous Vehicle Reliability?
>> Key Findings
>> Autonomous vehicles would have to be driven hundreds of millions of miles and sometimes hundreds of billions of miles to demonstrate their reliability in terms of fatalities and injuries.
>> Under even aggressive testing assumptions, existing fleets would take tens and sometimes hundreds of years to drive these miles — an impossible proposition if the aim is to demonstrate their performance prior to releasing them on the roads for consumer use.
>> Therefore, at least for fatalities and injuries, test-driving alone cannot provide sufficient evidence for demonstrating autonomous vehicle safety.
Note also that Tesla's numbers are reported after several years that Tesla cars with Autopilot have already been driven on public roads. Whatever the numbers say now when Autopilot was first released there was no evidence of it being safer than human-driven cars, only wishfull thinking and marketing concerns.
>> Driving to Safety
>> How Many Miles of Driving Would It Take to Demonstrate Autonomous Vehicle Reliability?
>> Key Findings
>> Autonomous vehicles would have to be driven hundreds of millions of miles and sometimes hundreds of billions of miles to demonstrate their reliability in terms of fatalities and injuries.
>> Under even aggressive testing assumptions, existing fleets would take tens and sometimes hundreds of years to drive these miles — an impossible proposition if the aim is to demonstrate their performance prior to releasing them on the roads for consumer use.
>> Therefore, at least for fatalities and injuries, test-driving alone cannot provide sufficient evidence for demonstrating autonomous vehicle safety.
https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1478.html
Note also that Tesla's numbers are reported after several years that Tesla cars with Autopilot have already been driven on public roads. Whatever the numbers say now when Autopilot was first released there was no evidence of it being safer than human-driven cars, only wishfull thinking and marketing concerns.