Re:We Keep Telling the Myth of a Renaissance Golden Age and ...
by exporectomy on Thursday April 15, 2021 @05:03AM
(#26817954)
Deaths per population, not per infected case is about 0.2% in the US. The black death killed about 50% of Europe's population.
Re:We Keep Telling the Myth of a Renaissance Golden Age and ...
by _cs2017_ on Thursday April 15, 2021 @04:56AM
(#26817895)
Yes, case fatality rate is 1.8% but infection fatality rate is quite a bit below 0.5% (the exact number is unknown since no one in the US is doing random testing properly). Bubonic plague infection fatality rate was 50-70%, so over 100x larger.
Re:We Keep Telling the Myth of a Renaissance Golden Age and ...
by Pyramus on Thursday April 15, 2021 @08:01AM
(#26819356)
Here is a good estimation based on seroprevalence data from different countries [1]
> Taking France as a reference population, the ensemble model estimates a population IFR of 0.79% (95% credible interval, 0.68–0.92%).
Crucially, IFR correlates with the capacity to treat the infection.
[1] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2918-0/figures/2
Re:We Keep Telling the Myth of a Renaissance Golden Age and ...
by _cs2017_ on Friday April 16, 2021 @09:05AM
(#26833375)
Except that seroprevalence itself likely underestimates total infections: https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3364.
Also, it's quite suspicious that Japan has the highest IFR in the world, with the gap over the average much larger than can be explained by population age. Especially strange since Japan has some of the best medical systems in the world, and has not (yet) exceeded the capacity of its hospital system.
Re:We Keep Telling the Myth of a Renaissance Golden Age and ...
by umanwizard on Thursday April 15, 2021 @09:38AM
(#26820321)
CFR is a useless and misleading metric.
In the United States, as of the time of this posting, 564,000 people have died to COVID, and we've had 31,400,000 cases, which puts the case fatality rate at 1.8%.