As for shutdown vs shutdown lite: No; the economy didn’t completely reopen in July. The recommendations from March 2020 were for more strict targeted shutdown protocols, but over a shorter duration (Strict reverse quarantines for nursing homes, but only for a few months for example.). The idea was to get less vulnerable groups to herd immunity faster. I’m saying a general, country wide shutdown for three months, concurrently with a strict targeted lockdown for about 5-6 months would have been more effective and cheaper (and, we’d have been done by last August, as the parent of my other post suggested.)

Source for 50%: Wall street journal. We were above 33% (based on random sampling, not confirmed cases) a few months ago.

This one from Feb predicted herd immunity a bit too early. They ran one with updated numbers last week, but I can’t find it:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/well-have-herd-immunity-by-apri...