News for hackers. Stuff that matters.
Re:Technologies I thought my son would never use by Spooky23 on Sunday April 11, 2021 @04:45PM (#26773257)
I can see that, I think the Lindy effect needs some refinement.

My personal take is that there’s a an apex for a particular generation of technology, and that is good forever. A 1930s Farmall tractor is an example of that... there are improved modern replacements, but the 1930 model still does the job near optimally. I would guess that a non trivial number of those tractors will be in use in 2130.

1980s/early 90s minicomputers are similar. Many of these devices are still in use today, and probably could be kept in use for decades to come.

Modern tech is a little harder because we’ve been in a rapid growth phase and the software services based world is more aligned with production than sustainment. I’d bet that trend will change in 20-30 years.

Re:Technologies I thought my son would never use by chubot on Sunday April 11, 2021 @05:25PM (#26773588)
Yeah I just watched some videos that is extremely related by this modern homesteader (and YouTuber! -- apparently he was on the TV show "Alone").

He says "one of the best pieces of advice I've ever gotten is: Don't trade a gun for a snow machine". This is exactly what you're saying, and it's backed up by a lot of experience living without power and water!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BH15Kua5P1Y&t=918s

He also says "everyone one of us has to decide when to jump ship on a technology"

He says canoes peaked in the 1960's, and you can buy a used one for like $125 that's the same as what you'd buy today for thousands. Same with hand saws. He maintains old saws and chainsaws and uses them:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BH15Kua5P1Y&t=746s

when you look at any kind of manufactured goods a lot of things have reached their peak and are either poorer quality than they used to be or they're just the same quality as their peak

----

I found this channel via a video about building an off grid cabin from scratch for a couple thousand dollars: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bOOXmfkXpkM

It's good -- a lot of it is built by hand with a hammer and nails. He even says load bearing screws are too expensive, and nails are better!

All of the advice reminds me of Taleb, because it's not necessarily trying to be "right", but rather distilling rules of thumb from practice.

Re:Technologies I thought my son would never use by Spooky23 on Sunday April 11, 2021 @05:37PM (#26773680)
My favorite example of the quality issue is the “whirly pop”, a stovetop popcorn maker.

The old one my parents had was aluminum with a metal gear. The modern version has been MBAed to death — the gear is plastic, and the lid is so thin that you could probably replicate it with 2 plys of aluminum foil. It costs more and is measurably worse in any dimension.

Re:Technologies I thought my son would never use by photojosh on Sunday April 11, 2021 @07:11PM (#26774408)
I recently bought a leaf blower/vac mulcher. Took me way longer than it should to figure out that the difference between the $50 model and the $100 one was that the latter had a metal mulching blade instead of a plastic one, and that the former would likely break as soon as I vacced up a stick that was a bit too big. Thanks random forum poster!
Re:Technologies I thought my son would never use by ghaff on Sunday April 11, 2021 @05:48PM (#26773765)
I only somewhat agree with respect to canoes.

Grummans are great and they're still being made (though not by the original company).

However, for recreational/tripping/whitewater, Royalex-based canoes were better for a variety of reasons. Unfortunately the material is no longer being made because its intended use (Go Carts) didn't take off to the degree planned. The company continued to make it on a more or less breakeven basis but upon a change of ownership the new owner decided to scrap it. There have been one or two efforts to make something equivalent, but AFAIK they haven't panned out.

There are still plenty of well-made fiberglass/Kevlar boats being made but they're much more fragile.

Re:Technologies I thought my son would never use by cosmodisk on Sunday April 11, 2021 @05:13PM (#26773492)
The tractor thing is quite an interesting one( not necessarily with just this particular one): the older tractors ended up being so reliable that people often try to get an older one instead of splashing out on a brand new John Deer and this annoys the manufacturers down deep to their bones.
Re:Technologies I thought my son would never use by Spooky23 on Sunday April 11, 2021 @05:32PM (#26773645)
Yeah and it is tragic in some ways as the thing missing from the 1930s gear is safety features.

Many preventable deaths happen every year as a result.

Re:Technologies I thought my son would never use by ghaff on Sunday April 11, 2021 @06:31PM (#26774076)
Of course, you'll also see people arguing that you shouldn't be driving a 10 year old car for the same reason. There's some level of tradeoff where using an older product without the latest safety features makes sense.
Re:Technologies I thought my son would never use by chubot on Sunday April 11, 2021 @05:29PM (#26773617)
Actually the same video I referenced above has a section on tractors! https://youtu.be/BH15Kua5P1Y?t=829

He says it cost me $100 to get the best that has ever been made, and it's backed up by a lot of experience living off grid

Re:Technologies I thought my son would never use by hattmall on Monday April 12, 2021 @12:33AM (#26776081)
You may want to specify "lawn tractor" as that's not really what I was picturing when you say tractor.