AR, in the inobstrusive/genuinely useful sense is harder but seems far more interesting. Yes, there are social factors to deal with as well, but I can certainly see worn information displays becoming a thing.
As a side note, my friend and I first made this bet back in the DK2 days, and I was ~60% confident I was correct. What pushed me in to the 90%+ region was playing with an Oculus Quest. The guardian mode, freedom from wires, hand tracking, pass-through mode, etc... Everything that felt like a real step forward was also something that will ultimately apply to AR glasses. It really made me think I was on the right track.
Can we be so certain of this, especially given the events of the last year? If VR technology had been perfected at the time, it seems very likely to me that instead of a shift to Zoom at the outbreak of the pandemic, many companies, government agencies and (especially) schools would have made the move to VR. It will be interesting to see how VR is integrated into our every day lives (both voluntarily and otherwise) as it is perfected.
This is true, at least in part, because Zoom meetings allow this, not necessarily because this is the behavior that an employer views as ideal. If VR technology was well-developed, I think its likely that many employers would hold VR meetings for the very reason that employees would be forced to give 100% of their attention. Certainly this is true when it comes to schools, which have done everything possible to ensure that students are paying 100% attention all the time, aren't using supplemental materials during tests (cheating), ect.
>When North Carolina A&T State University junior Arielle G. Brown took her International Marketing exam in September, a cheating-detection program analyzed her behavior through a computer webcam the entire time. After the test, her associate professor fired off a furious email ripping into her class for some “negative behavior” the software had flagged.
>“A STUDENT IN 6 MINUTES HAD 776 HEAD AND EYE MOVEMENTS,” she wrote, adding later, “I would hate to have to write you up.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2020/11/12/test-mo...
We may not all end up choosing (or be forced) to hold VR meetings in cyberspace, but to seems virtually (pun intended) certain to me that many will.
Easy tier: folding laundry, cooking, most other things
Medium tier: doing the dishes, cleaning the bathroom (need to have a towel at the ready if I need to unmute)
Hard tier: vacuuming (makes it hard to listen to what's being said, so I've only done it once very briefly until now)
It really only solves maintenance cleaning IE doing the main bits that get dirty most often like common walkways, near the front door etc.
For me, that is 90% of the work. I only live in a small place and wife and I appreciate it. In a large house, with 3 or more kids? I'd buy one for every floor if I had to.
For the other 10%, I have a dyson battery powered stick thing. Gets into the nooks, does the keyboard and the car too.
And there is something nice about being able to do the dishes, wash and dry clothes, vacuum the floor; all while playing games.
It's certainly a start, but there's a long way to go.
That, IMO, is the killer feature, and once it hits takeoff, the headset era of VR will be looked back at as a necessary stepstone that was ultimately completely replaced with what ultimately will be used.