What is high paid is not the ability to write COBOL, what is being highly paid is understanding the 40 year old application building the foundation of the insurance or bank. If you understand all the implications of code changes there, you are worth a lot. If you need oversight to not break anything (hardly any tests etc.) you a worth a lot less.

Spot on. I see people talking about learning COBOL or not, but as you say that's not so much the point. You really need to know how ancient mainframes work. A programmer can pick up the basics of COBOL soon enough, but understanding the ins and outs of zOS and the likes? Much harder, especially the more recent your tech knowledge is. Approaches to software and systems design has changed dramatically since the IBM mainframe days. If you want to make money working on old software just learn Java EE or .NET Framework or something!

I know a guy who used to write COBOL at IBM. He was apparently quite good. He now drives trucks for a landscape supply company. I told him that he should look into COBOL jobs again so he did some research. It seems that the actual number of available jobs is a lot lower than the hype would suggest.

my understanding is that companies with COBOL are big instituions with people not much interested in "career" but in "stability". So those old programmers stay there until they retire (nothing wrong with that). So they keep up the COBOL system. Once they get older management thinks about replacing the COBOL system with something new. If it's really expensive, a new system is built around the COBOL system with new technologies : report by report, DB by DB, etc. until then old system can be unplugged. It takes 10 to 20 years to do so. Nothing unbearable for a big corp.

The way I’ve always heard it is that it’s somewhat bimodal. You got people with many decades of experience who can, as independent consultants charge an impressive price for there time. Then you get people who were maybe bait and switched or took what they could find working as a low paid contractor or developer for a company that doesn’t pay the best.

I believe the post was sarcasm.

If you're an expert in CICS, JCL, DB2 then you'll get a job, but if you just hello_world.cob you won't get a job.

Kinda like its somewhat easier to get a react.js angular.js node.js job than a generic javascript job.

My first job was as a COBOL developer 10 years ago. My annual salary was around $4000