Re:Vitamin D: The truth about an alleged Covid ‘cover-up’
by jcims on Tuesday April 06, 2021 @06:14AM
(#26710111)
> Double-blind RCTs are the gold standard.
They are also extremely slow. Appropriate for efficacy testing of new treatments, not as much for public health messaging at the onset of a crisis.
It’s important to have a methodological basis for decision making in those early hours where information is sparse and of dubious quality. Without that, people panic and make short-sighted decisions that may undermine the legitimacy of their organization for years to come.
This is wrong. You probably can employ bayesian causal inference if you know that two observed variables have a causal relationship and want to know about the direction. But if you already know that, most of the riddle has been solved a priori. Double-blind RCTs are the gold standard.