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Re:Vitamin D: The truth about an alleged Covid ‘cover-up’ by bildung on Tuesday April 06, 2021 @05:12AM (#26709746)
> Bayesian statistics can inform hypotheses at any level of evidence

This is wrong. You probably can employ bayesian causal inference if you know that two observed variables have a causal relationship and want to know about the direction. But if you already know that, most of the riddle has been solved a priori. Double-blind RCTs are the gold standard.

Re:Vitamin D: The truth about an alleged Covid ‘cover-up’ by jcims on Tuesday April 06, 2021 @06:14AM (#26710111)
> Double-blind RCTs are the gold standard.

They are also extremely slow. Appropriate for efficacy testing of new treatments, not as much for public health messaging at the onset of a crisis.

It’s important to have a methodological basis for decision making in those early hours where information is sparse and of dubious quality. Without that, people panic and make short-sighted decisions that may undermine the legitimacy of their organization for years to come.

Re:Vitamin D: The truth about an alleged Covid ‘cover-up’ by bildung on Tuesday April 06, 2021 @07:29AM (#26710582)
Yes absolutely. If things have to move fast, people/institutions have to refer to heuristics. But in my understanding this also is pretty much what the article described.