Twitch provides absolutely no discoverability to streamers. It's purely a function of big gets bigger. They have zero design or plans to help streamers connect with the viewers who are interested in them (it's not "Playing Game X"). The primary way that Twitch streamers at 100+ viewers get new ones is via Youtube Clips + Twitter!

The first company to reasonably solve this problem will capture the lower 80% of Twitch's streamers.

Weirdly, YouTube has discoverability of normal videos nailed, but not for gaming streams either. There is tremendous opportunity here.

SO what will disrupt Twitch is the same thing as usual: a combo of a greedy company, a user experience that gets worse and worse, and a new tech coming out.

Interestingly Youtube has 2 out of 3 - greedy company running ads every 3 minutes, and constant full screen badgering about cookies and sign-ups. I wonder what the new tech will be that will complete the set?

(For the avoidance of doubt, I think PeerTube is great technology and I hope it wins, I just don't think it has any chance of supplanting Youtube any time soon).

Much better than the current situation with YouTube's ContentID where the presumption of innocence is routinely violated, not to mention all the other issues : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=trIn90HTqKs

(Also, the way the current ContentID might be violating European laws deriving from Article 13, but I haven't really been following that lately...)

This actually leads me to believe that Twitch users are probably at like a 95%+ AdBlock install rate.

And also the main point was that Twitch does a terrible job at monetizing off their ads. They have the worst advertising platform.

Ads on Twitch run for all streamers. There's very little targeting capability and they strike individual deals for all ads on their system rather than purchase from a DSP.

https://www.ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2021/3/14/do-amazon-...

They're still struggling to make a profit.

Turns out their business probably needs both to work.

Anything that is owned by Google won't improve but rather decline:

- search? Was at its best in 2007

- Reader? Killed after spending all the air in the rss market.

- Google+? Killed after they'd suffocated a few interesting alternatives.

- etc

(notable exception: after a decade they've actually stopped serving me insulting ads - but I do wonder if that wasn't Google but rather the advertiser who got whiff that Google sent their expensive "targeted" ads to everyone.)

- reach out to 20 biggest streamers on twitch and get them to agree to move to your platform, the same way spotify got Joe Rogan to move from YT to Spotify

- with signed agreements ready get funding

- build the platform, and all accompanying streamer tools, preferably fix all major issues that twitch has

- set the date for launch

- launch, with all your onboarded twitch streamers streaming “we moved to platform x” on their abandoned twitch channels

- profit

Note: this requires a few million USD, but it is definitely doable. In fact, YC could get a few investors and build this in a year, if they wanted to.

Anegdata, I just stopped listening to Joe Rogan, despite liking Spotify more than Youtube. I was on the fence anyway, I'm lazy and so on.

It seems to me that we're at the point where it takes the next generation of kids for a new service to get into a crowded space. Because popular people on the platform (it's always about these hubs, that you got right I think) just become older and less relatable.

1. https://checkpointxp.com/2020/12/17/highest-paid-twitch-stre... take into account that somebody likely paid for most pixels on the screen before they even start streaming