Re:Lithium battery costs have fallen by 98% in three decades
by Tade0 on Saturday April 03, 2021 @09:31PM
(#26686230)
One kWh of batteries generally requires around 200g of lithium. Both by weight and price it's a crucial, but small component, so unless it suffered a 10x hike, its price isn't relevant.
Meanwhile LiFePO4 batteries, which are currently the most popular chemistry(at least in China), contain no cobalt whatsoever.
Re:Lithium battery costs have fallen by 98% in three decades
by wpietri on Sunday April 04, 2021 @12:21PM
(#26690723)
Other analysts differ on whether these things will impact the retail price. But you make my point for me: this is an extremely complex problem, and making any simple assumption about future price is a mistake.
Re:Lithium battery costs have fallen by 98% in three decades
by AtlasBarfed on Sunday April 04, 2021 @10:16PM
(#26694665)
Or Nickel, the other limiting factor to top-end batteries.
Re:Lithium battery costs have fallen by 98% in three decades
by Brakenshire on Saturday April 03, 2021 @09:06PM
(#26686127)
BNEF do a price survey, prices have continued to decline at the same rate. The decline was exactly 13% again last year.
Lithium prices have gone down in the last few years, and Cobalt isn’t a necessary component.
Regardless, 1 year isn't the correct duration for a bet. People average owning a car for ~6 years, and the average lifespan is something like 12 years.
But depending on terms, I might take a year-over-year bet for battery prices. Demand is high and the pandemic has caused significant supply chain problems. They could well have gone up this year. And indeed, a quick look at news reports suggests key components, including lithium and cobalt, are surging in price. Fine examples of why assuming a historical average has future meaning can get you into trouble.