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Re:CEO of Waymo John Krafcik is leaving by bumby on Friday April 02, 2021 @06:49PM (#26676748)
>On the subject of danger. Literally everything we do is dangerous to some degree. Everything. Self-driving does not need to be perfect, but only better than human drivers.

The problem is this statement is written like a technocrat wrote it rather than someone who makes public policy. From an engineering perspective, it’s true that it would only need to be better than a human driver. To be implemented though, it needs approval in the public sphere and not just engineers. This presents a very real publicity problem.

You are correct that everything in life contains risk. Risk is defined as severity x probability. While the severity may be the same, I think humans judge the probability very different between human and autonomous drivers.

I think it’s rooted in the need for humans to understand what’s under the hood (no pun intended) to trust the decision making capability. We already have this with human drivers through the tool of empathy evolved over millions of years. We can reasonably assume we know what humans will do. (Incidentally it’s also why witnessing someone with mental illness puts us on edge). We have no such ability to decipher an autonomous car, especially for the layman. So this distorts the uncertainty in the risk assessment and any accident can disproportionately cause our assumption of risk to elevate.

Re:CEO of Waymo John Krafcik is leaving by rpdillon on Friday April 02, 2021 @07:35PM (#26677011)
For me personally, your point really resonates. I trust human drivers in part because our incentives are aligned: neither one of us wants to get into an accident. The incentives of a machine learning model are harder to introspect on, as you point out.

I think there's another issue here, too. It relates to the observation that folks have a fear of flying, but not really a fear of driving, despite driving having about a 1 in 98 chance of killing you over your lifetime, while for aircraft it's more like 1 in 7178 (2008 data from USA Today...hopefully directionally correct). It's been discussed in research extensively[0], and seems to relate to whether or not the person feels they have a sense of personal control. I think your point is well-taken that the technological risks and the publicity challenge are independent barriers to the widespread adoption of AVs.

[0]: https://oxfordre.com/communication/view/10.1093/acrefore/978...

Re:CEO of Waymo John Krafcik is leaving by bumby on Saturday April 03, 2021 @10:33AM (#26681381)
There’s been a few downvoted without elaborating on the disagreement, so I’ll add if you think this is incorrect take some time to think about how well policy and science were received during the pandemic. Policy will never be completely data-driven because humans do no intuitively think on statistical grounds.