Re:CEO of Waymo John Krafcik is leaving
by mrshadowgoose on Friday April 02, 2021 @07:19PM
(#26676921)
Please suggest an alternative estimation technique then.
There is a certain # of calculations/s necessary to meaningfully emulate a neuron. We currently have no idea what level of fidelity is required, but we can make guesses for each of the levels of fidelity that might be required.
The estimates that assume the highest (and likely unnecessary) level of fidelity currently top out at 2100.
For the record, I never claimed that failure was impossible, I used the phrase "on track". It's totally possible that there might be some surprise quantum weirdness going on that would be intractable to emulate with classical computers, but we've found no evidence of that to date.
It's not impossible that some sort of thing would happen, but anyone who tells you that it can't possibly fail to be achieved in the next 80 years is lying, either to your or to themselves.