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Re:Latest EmDrive tests at Dresden University shows it does ... by codeflo on Thursday April 01, 2021 @06:24AM (#26658635)
What you call the "pessimistic view" might be very enthusiastic about projects that are orders of magnitude more likely to work. So in my opinion, the relevant axis is not optimistic vs. pessimistic, but informed vs. uninformed.

Can an outsider with no knowledge of the field make a chance discovery? It's theoretically possible, and we might want to support undirected experimentation for the one in a billion chance that something might work. But we should take those probabilities into account when allocating our collective resources.

Re:Latest EmDrive tests at Dresden University shows it does ... by ClumsyPilot on Thursday April 01, 2021 @11:39AM (#26661853)
So tell me, how do we calculate probability for yet unknown phenomen? Which is more 'probable' to be correct - string theory or loop quantum gravity?

If I want to investigate einstein rosen bridges, whats the probability I am wasting my time?

Re:Latest EmDrive tests at Dresden University shows it does ... by saagarjha on Thursday April 01, 2021 @07:06PM (#26667390)
Usually you look at the volume of experimental evidence that directly contradicts it. In this case there’s quite a lot.
Re:Latest EmDrive tests at Dresden University shows it does ... by Certhas on Friday April 02, 2021 @03:51PM (#26675255)
This this this. Sooooo much. This always was flying spaghetti monster level unlikely. People simply do not understand how tightly constrained things like this are by existing evidence. And almost uniquely so.

When experimentalists announced they had discovered super-luminal neutrinos, everybody reacted exactly like all the amateurs here are saying we should: Explore potential theoretical ramifications while being aware that it's most likely measurement error and encourage further study until we're sure.

Not so for the EMDrive. Why? Because the idea that using nothing but electromagnetism you can violate this foundational property of every physical theory since Newton (_including_ electromagnetism) means that somehow your electromagnetic device, while operating well within the range of millions of other experiments out there, somehow triggered behaviour fundamentally different from electromagnetism. Different from the type of theory that electromagnetism is. Different from the type of theory that every physical theory ever found to describe reality is. And yet this phenomenon that is utterly _different_ than anything else we have ever seen went completely unnoticed in the millions of em sensitive experiments performed by everyone from undergrads to international labs over the last two centuries.

In the strictest sense it's not logically impossible that this could happen. But only in the sense that it's not logically impossible that the flying spaghetti monster is manipulating every scientific experiment performed to hide itself.