https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/research-insights/economy/the-worl... China GDP will be much larger than US by 2050

https://www.politico.eu/article/china-topples-us-as-eus-top-... China topples US as EU Top trade partner

https://www.upi.com/Defense-News/2019/08/20/Report-Chinas-mi... Report: China's military could overwhelm U.S. forces in Indo-Pacific region

https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-10-01/From-nobody-to-somebod... China has the worlds largest high speed rail network

first link is "The World in 2050 report was published in February 2017"

second link is only regarding goods. goods + services, US is EU top trade partner

third link: there are now Japan/Australian/US/UK/France/German warships patrolling in the indo-pacific region.

fourth link: costly to maintain, uncertainty post covid

Many British believed they were number 1, a world leader, long after they were left behind and this was not the case.

Britain fell due to the necessity of containing a neighbouring state which have bigger population, better productivity, and the advantage of not having an empire abroad of a continent.

At the end, the Brits fell after pummeling Germany two times. Both haven't recovered fully today. So this historical analogue doesn't really speak well to both US and China in the next, say, 3 generations. Wonder who would be the US in this situation though.

The analog was regarding denial. Not the circumstances leading to losing the position of hegemon.