News for hackers. Stuff that matters.

A comment on The Next Bubble - Don't Get Fooled Again. Parent comment

Re:The Next Bubble - Don't Get Fooled Again by carsongross on Wednesday June 15, 2011 @01:19PM (#2658051)
1) I think the Euro will not be recognizable in five years, so I hesitate to guess where whatever the Euro is (if it still exists at all) will be. I'm expecting that current Euro holders will see depreciation of their purchasing power unless they are very nimble.

2) I expect the S&P to retest and break the previous lows. Russell Napier has a target of 400, which sounds plausible to me.

3) Not a chance. Productive capacity has been hollowed out in exactly the economies that have taken on the most debt, so the debt can't be repaid in any meaningful way. When you start penciling in future obligations or, heaven forfend, "investments" in "derivatives" made by our friends in the big pension funds... No way. I believe we are at the end of the public/private debt ponzi scheme. It could end in hyperinflation or in deflation. I expect deflation.

My money is kind of where my mouth is: a straddle of startup investments and cash/PMs.

Hey, I could be wrong, right?

[ Parent | on HN ]
Re:The Next Bubble - Don't Get Fooled Again by yaakov34 on Wednesday June 15, 2011 @01:55PM (#2658252)
By the way, I've always wanted to ask someone who buys gold/silver as a hedge against economic collapse - are you physically holding it in your house, or what? If your gold is just 1s and 0s in some database which say that you own some gold, why do you think you will be able to get it after the "Big One"? Your bank or brokerage may have to give it to some creditor who is in line before you. And there are precedents for the government just confiscating it, or forcing you to "sell" it at the price they set. So what's the plan?
[ Parent | on HN ]
Re:The Next Bubble - Don't Get Fooled Again by carsongross on Friday June 17, 2011 @12:43PM (#2666172)
We've established that you think I'm crazy. Granting that, how do you think I would answer your questions?
[ Parent | on HN ]
Re:The Next Bubble - Don't Get Fooled Again by Ixiaus on Wednesday June 15, 2011 @04:25PM (#2658886)
I physically hold it - but I only keep 20% of my cash in gold and silver.
[ Parent | on HN ]
Re:The Next Bubble - Don't Get Fooled Again by yaakov34 on Wednesday June 15, 2011 @01:33PM (#2658140)
Everyone could be wrong, and probably is :)

I'm going to add this thread to Google Bookmarks, and revisit it in 5 years (does HN keep threads for this long? It should). Unless, of course, there will be no Google and no Hacker News and no internet in 5 years.

Don't know about S&P 500, I'm not about to invest anything in the US, what with Bernanke about to "ease" his printing press into third freaking gear.

See you back here on June 15, 2016.

[ Parent | on HN ]