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Re:Nuclear technology’s role in the world’s energy supply is... by pfdietz on Tuesday March 09, 2021 @09:46PM (#26407168)
We leave that out because it's irrelevant to whether nuclear or renewables should be used to replace fossil fuels.
Re:Nuclear technology’s role in the world’s energy supply is... by sir_bearington on Tuesday March 09, 2021 @11:20PM (#26407729)
It is highly relevant, because renewables are not presently capable of replacing fossil fuels. And they won't be until massive energy storage systems, literally thousands of times better than what we have now, is developed. California, Hawaii, and other places are already hitting saturated electricity markets during the daytime. Companies aren't starting to install storage, as renewable evangelists promised.
Re:Nuclear technology’s role in the world’s energy supply is... by dragonwriter on Wednesday March 10, 2021 @02:08AM (#26408671)
> Companies aren't starting to install storage, as renewable evangelists promised.

Yes, they are, at least in California which has an aggressive storage policy: https://blog.ucsusa.org/guest-commentary/five-facts-about-en...

Re:Nuclear technology’s role in the world’s energy supply is... by sir_bearington on Wednesday March 10, 2021 @03:43AM (#26409188)
Th fact that California only has 1.5 GWh of storage is precisely the reason why wind and solar cannot form the primary source of energy. Who cares if the state met it's storage goals if the storage goals were tiny?
Re:Nuclear technology’s role in the world’s energy supply is... by dragonwriter on Wednesday March 10, 2021 @06:22AM (#26410122)
That's not 1.5GWh energy stored, it's 1.5GW output from storage systems (output is the key metric because the storage systems aren't very rapid discharge, and the key factor in adequacy isn't how much energy is stored but how much power can be delivered from storage when other systems aren't delivering. And it's not just about meeting current targets but the rapid pace of new storage coming online.
Re:Nuclear technology’s role in the world’s energy supply is... by sir_bearington on Wednesday March 10, 2021 @11:44AM (#26413159)
> That's not 1.5GWh energy stored, it's 1.5GW output from storage systems

So how much is actually stored? 1.5GW for 10 minutes? 15 minutes? Watts isn't a unit of storage, watts per a unit of time is a unit of storage.

Re:Nuclear technology’s role in the world’s energy supply is... by dragonwriter on Wednesday March 10, 2021 @01:20PM (#26414256)
> So how much is actually stored?

That's not actually the key figure of merit, the problem isn't how long stored sources can be used but peak output.

> 1.5GW for 10 minutes? 15 minutes?

All of it for longer than that (none of the various utility-scale sources have a discharge that quickly), which is why power and not energy is the thing that is targeted. But it varies (utility-scale battery systems have a different profile [and differing within that by specific battery tech] than thermal storage which has a different profile than pumped hydro, etc.)

> Watts isn't a unit of storage

No, it's a unit of power, and the main problem right now is being able to meet needed output levels when other sources are offline. The concern is the depth of the trough that storage can handle, you need breadth too, so a substantial level of that comes inherently with depth, and the main concern is short-term variation.

Re:Nuclear technology’s role in the world’s energy supply is... by sir_bearington on Wednesday March 10, 2021 @03:55PM (#26416100)
> That's not actually the key figure of merit, the problem isn't how long stored sources can be used but peak output.

That is exactly the problem. Yes, output matter, too, but capacity is the main figure people are interested in. If storage system A can output 1.5 GW but only for 1 hour, and system B can output 1.5 GW but for 10 hours then these are very different systems.

> All of it for longer than that

And how long is it? Basically we're trying to find the area of rectangle. You're providing the height, but staying conspicuously mum about the width.

> The concern is the depth of the trough that storage can handle, you need breadth too, so a substantial level of that comes inherently with depth, and the main concern is short-term variation.

No, the concern is both depth and breadth. It's easy to build a battery system that puts out a lot of energy for a short period of time. It's hard to build a battery system that puts out a lot of energy for 12 hours.

Re:Nuclear technology’s role in the world’s energy supply is... by jboog on Wednesday March 10, 2021 @08:48AM (#26411136)
Absolutely none of this changes the undeniable fact that "storage" is incapable of meeting the demands of baseload power generation currently provided by Nuclear and fossil fuels.

We aren't anywhere close and won't be for many years which is why it's so absolutely ridiculous how green activists implicitly endorse using coal, natural gas and other fossil fuels which kill tens of thousands of people every year and are cooking the planet, when we have nuclear, which kills no one, and does not contribute substantively to climate change.

It's almost like the activists care more about posturing and magical thinking than they do "saving the planet"...

Re:Nuclear technology’s role in the world’s energy supply is... by jboog on Tuesday March 09, 2021 @09:59PM (#26407239)
it is literally impossible for renewables to replace fossil fuels given current technology and anything on the horizon for at least the next decade, probably much longer.

So that leaves...Nuclear.

So again, why are you fear-mongering about how "dangerous" nuclear is when it's a tiny tiny fraction of the real danger of fossil fuels?

I thought climate change was like an urgent crisis or something....?

Re:Nuclear technology’s role in the world’s energy supply is... by Stupulous on Tuesday March 09, 2021 @09:59PM (#26407241)
I think the question is whether renewables should replace nuclear or fossil fuels first. The top level comment isn't talking about replacing fossil fuels with nuclear.
Re:Nuclear technology’s role in the world’s energy supply is... by jboog on Tuesday March 09, 2021 @10:09PM (#26407301)
Renewables CANNOT replace nuclear OR fossil fuels. It's literally impossible based on current or any near-term technology.

We are being told on the one hand that climate change is an existential threat to tens (hundreds?) of millions of people. Oh but actually we can just refuse to decarbonize our energy production because maybe someday 10, 20, 50 or 100 years from now there's a true "green" renewable energy I guess.

Re:Nuclear technology’s role in the world’s energy supply is... by Stupulous on Wednesday March 10, 2021 @02:00PM (#26414748)
About 1/5th of US energy usage is renewable. That means we can shutdown 1/5th of nonrenewable plants or shutdown all nonrenewables 1/5th of the time, real answer somewhere in between. The top level post recommends doing this only to carbon sources and leaving nuclear alone.

There are good arguments for and against pivoting to nuclear right now. But there is an (I think) unquestionable position presented here that we shouldn't be pivoting away from nuclear and shutting down plants.

Re:Nuclear technology’s role in the world’s energy supply is... by pfdietz on Tuesday March 09, 2021 @10:30PM (#26407435)
> Renewables CANNOT replace nuclear OR fossil fuels. It's literally impossible based on current or any near-term technology.

Nonsense. It's clear they can, although it's more than just using Li-ion batteries.

Re:Nuclear technology’s role in the world’s energy supply is... by sir_bearington on Tuesday March 09, 2021 @11:25PM (#26407751)
> although it's more than just using Li-ion batteries.

It'd probably be helpful to elaborate, rather than just insist that the above commenter is wrong and loosely suggest at other solutions.

Things like hydrogen storage, synthetic methane, and thermal storage remain in the prototyping phase. I think it's not correct to say that they can, seeing as there isn't even a commercial market for these technologies let alone one that we know will scale. By comparison countries have already powered >80% of their electricity with nuclear.

It's clear than nuclear power can completely replace fossil fuels. Renewables might be able to replace it, but that's a gamble based on assuming a new storage solution will work excellent. Not just better, but truly blows-everything-else-out-of-the-water phenomenal. When the stakes at play are stopping climate change, this is a very risky assumption to make.

Re:Nuclear technology’s role in the world’s energy supply is... by bob29 on Tuesday March 09, 2021 @11:54PM (#26407905)
https://energystorage.org/why-energy-storage/technologies/

These technologies exist today and are based on sound thermodynamic principles and existing industrial capability.

Re:Nuclear technology’s role in the world’s energy supply is... by sir_bearington on Wednesday March 10, 2021 @12:43AM (#26408194)
Really? What company can I call up and buy 50 GWh of storage from? That's only 6 minutes worth of storage for the USA.

I'd say if we could provision 1 hour's worth of storage over the span of a decade, that'd amount to a demonstration of economic feasibility. But few of these upcoming technologies are making it out of the prototyping stage, let alone commerical success on this scale.

Re:Nuclear technology’s role in the world’s energy supply is... by bob29 on Wednesday March 10, 2021 @02:51AM (#26408885)
There isn't a company you can call up because projects of this magnitude aren't quoted over the phone to internet forums users. 50 GWh is stored in ~30,000 barrels of synthetic fuel. GWh is an incomplete way to specify storage, there are different technologies for the different ways storage may be needed, depending on what resources are on the grid: short term to handle the peaks of everyone microwaving their breakfast and coffee at 7am or long term storage to handle a once every few decades event like a Texas snow storm.

No one is presently making these because the policy of the grid was developed around power plants that dig stuff out of the ground and burn it - the markets are based on bidding with the assumption every power plant will have a marginal cost of generation relative to the cost of its fuel. This policy doesn't reflect the nature of renewables which besides their capital cost have very low to 0 marginal cost of production. This has disrupted the energy markets in many ways and policy is still being developed to incentivize storage capacity.

Re:Nuclear technology’s role in the world’s energy supply is... by sir_bearington on Wednesday March 10, 2021 @04:00PM (#26416181)
The point is that saying "No one is presently making these" on one hand, and claiming that they're within existing industrial capacity is contradictory. Energy markets like Hawaii and California are already hitting situations where energy cost is near zero due to overproduction from intermittent sources. But the promise that entrepreneurs will store this energy and put it back on the grid later has yet to pan out - contrary to the insistence of storage evangelists, hydrogen storage, synthetic methane, thermal batteries, and whatnot are a lot harder to build than one might think.
Re:Nuclear technology’s role in the world’s energy supply is... by pfdietz on Friday March 12, 2021 @06:36PM (#26442299)
It's not contradictory. The storage is not being done now not because it's impossible, but because the market conditions that would cause it (specifically, high carbon taxes) aren't there yet. Something like pumped thermal storage requires no new technology. It's just putting together things we can already build.
Re:Nuclear technology’s role in the world’s energy supply is... by jboog on Wednesday March 10, 2021 @08:51AM (#26411172)
I'm glad you can google "energy storage" and click on one of the first links but literally none of these are currently capable of replacing baseload nuclear and fossil fuel energy generation.

You can listen to the people who work in this industry and have studied it deeply or you can keep googling furiously for webpages that support your magical thinking.

Re:Nuclear technology’s role in the world’s energy supply is... by bob29 on Wednesday March 10, 2021 @12:04PM (#26413451)
I didn't "furiously google" anything I "calmly referenced" some of the MANY notes I have from following articles, podcasts, and journals in this field, which I have spent most of my career in.

In fact, I didn't see ANY links from you supporting your nonsense about renewables not working, despite them working in many places across the globe.

>literally none of these are currently capable of replacing baseload nuclear and fossil fuel energy generation.

Literally STORAGE will never replace GENERATION, they are two different concepts which most people understand but you apparently don't. STORAGE can supplement INTERMITTENT GENERATION to create DISPATCHABLE GENERATION for far cheaper than nuclear plants.

Re:Nuclear technology’s role in the world’s energy supply is... by jboog on Tuesday March 09, 2021 @10:39PM (#26407484)
You have absolutely no idea what you're talking about.

There is no way that renewable energy can replace baseload power generation of FF and natural gas given current technology.

All you have is magical thinking and science fiction.

Re:Nuclear technology’s role in the world’s energy supply is... by pfdietz on Tuesday March 09, 2021 @11:06PM (#26407636)
No sir, YOU have absolutely no idea what you're talking about. Note that you are not claiming that they could be competitive, but that they could not do it at all, regardless of price. This is clearly nonsense.
Re:Nuclear technology’s role in the world’s energy supply is... by jboog on Wednesday March 10, 2021 @08:56AM (#26411222)
Please feel free to point me to any developed country that has successfully replaced fossil fuel and nuclear baseload generation with renewables and energy storage.

I'll save you the time. No one has done it. And no, not because evil mustachio-twirling Koch brothers are pulling the strings. Because the technology does not exist at scale to do this.

Or do you want to continue with your speculative science fiction daydreams?

Re:Nuclear technology’s role in the world’s energy supply is... by pfdietz on Wednesday March 10, 2021 @07:55PM (#26418745)
The argument you make there is of course invalid.

Your argument is "it hasn't happened yet, therefore it cannot happen". This argument proves entirely too much; it implies no technological change can ever occur. To make this argument, you have to demonstrate that the situations in which the change did not occur are the same in all important respects as the current situation. And you cannot do that. Here's what's different.

(1) The cost of renewables has crashed, especially in the last decade. In the case of PV, by nearly an order of magnitude. This is an extreme rate of change for an energy technology.

(2) The cost of storage has also fallen rapidly, and continues to fall.

(3) Market conditions are now beginning to favor installation of storage, as they didn't before (when there's enough dispatchable gas on the grid vs. renewables storage doesn't pay off.)

(4) The existing infrastructure was largely installed at times when renewables were not competitive. However, it won't be ripped out until it becomes uneconomical to operate it (which means ignoring its capital cost). So observing that the source are still being used doesn't imply renewables are not winning.

(5) Fossil fuels have not, and still large are not, being taxed at a level appropriate for the damage they are going to do. Renewables don't have to beat fossil fuels unburdened by CO2 taxes (although we may have waited long enough with CO2 taxes that they may increasingly do so, at least in some market conditions). CO2 taxes will rise to the level needed to push fossil fuels entirely out of the market, and then the question becomes "which is cheaper, nuclear or renewables (or, possibly, fossil fuels with CCS)"?

(6) Once fossil fuels are out of the way, it is crystal clear from the data that absent some technological breakthroughs, new nuclear power plants are grossly uncompetitive vs. renewables. This (and not ludicrous conspiracy theory) is why you're seeing massive installation of renewables around the world, and nuclear installs are gasping for breath.

Re:Nuclear technology’s role in the world’s energy supply is... by bob29 on Wednesday March 10, 2021 @12:06PM (#26413479)