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Re:Female Founder Secrets: Fertility by nostrademons on Thursday March 04, 2021 @06:55PM (#26350273)
Steady states are the exception in nature, not the rule.

It's quite normal to have a population that increases exponentially, hits resource limits, and then decreases rapidly. (This was like literally 1/3 of my calculus class - it's a pretty classic example for coupled partial differential equations.) Eventually the population declines enough that the resource limits no longer apply, and people start having babies again. Population isn't a monolithic concept: there will always be some women who have children regardless of their incentives.

I'll just be happy if we can get there without war, famine, pestilence, and death, which are the normal results when a society hits resource limits.

Re:Female Founder Secrets: Fertility by sbierwagen on Thursday March 04, 2021 @07:53PM (#26350897)
So your... plan... is to wait for Western civilization to fall, and have the survivors return to traditional society amongst the abandoned buildings of the dead empire?

Your best case scenario is population collapse, but to do it without disease or conflict? Just everyone peacefully getting old and dying without having children?

Re:Female Founder Secrets: Fertility by nostrademons on Thursday March 04, 2021 @08:21PM (#26351155)
If we really can get it without war or disease, why not? People will be able to afford houses again. Wages will go up. Inequality will probably decrease, at the cost of making the rich people much less rich. Maybe we'll even get some semblance of community again. Aren't these all the things that people on both sides of the political spectrum are asking for?

Oftentimes, what's good for the empire isn't good for the citizens of the empire. So yeah, I'm happy to leave behind the wreckages of a dead empire if it means more for the people in that empire.

Unfortunately, I'm guessing that we'll get the war, or the pandemic, or both. That's how things have historically ended.

Re:Female Founder Secrets: Fertility by tjs8rj on Friday March 05, 2021 @12:14AM (#26353016)
I think the general demographic thesis on human population peaking relatively soon is that it comes from people voluntarily having fewer kids as conditions improve a la the demographic transition model. There’s no expectation that we hit earths carrying capacity
Re:Female Founder Secrets: Fertility by curveaway on Thursday March 04, 2021 @08:13PM (#26351092)
A steady indoor temperature of 68-72F is also not part of nature, but people get pretty grumpy if it is not the case.
Re:Female Founder Secrets: Fertility by jjk166 on Friday March 05, 2021 @04:51PM (#26362606)
Human populations (and pretty much all populations of complex life where predation is not a significant cause of death) follow logistic growth trends. Sudden population collapses are not normal in nature.
Re:Female Founder Secrets: Fertility by nostrademons on Friday March 05, 2021 @05:25PM (#26363000)
In the grand scheme of things we don't have a sudden population collapse. Fertility rates are at about 1.7-1.8 in the developed world, and we've got population momentum up till about 9B people. If current fertility rates continue we'll have about a 10% decline every generation once population momentum exhausts itself, which is pretty typical of a bubble that overshot its logistic growth limit and then is returning to equilibrium. (See eg. the stock market over the last week.)

We have some additional complexities in that a lot of those growth limits are because of the interplay between economics and population. There's plenty more room for humans on earth; there's not more room within major metropolises without triggering our "It's too crowded; better not breed" instincts. But economic forces needed to sustain those high populations promote concentration and crowding.