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Re:A Man Who Abandoned Value by OJFord on Wednesday March 03, 2021 @05:40AM (#26326779)
The market's only moved in one direction over the period; the fund can make money on moves in both directions.

So the more volatile (within a period) the more money making moves there.

If this is the benchmark:

     _   _/\  /
    / \_/   \/
at a dollar per slash, it's up $2. A fund that bet (and realised) a $1 per slash made $8.

(Even with only long bets, they could make $5.)

Re:A Man Who Abandoned Value by kgwgk on Wednesday March 03, 2021 @06:06AM (#26326922)
The market has moved a lot. But the point is that if the fund goes 100% TSLA at the beginning and does nothing else it would have outperformed massively and the volatility of the market would be completely irrelevant.
Re:A Man Who Abandoned Value by OJFord on Wednesday March 03, 2021 @10:59AM (#26330099)
What point is that? You're moving the goalposts, why would/should/do you think this fund did go '100% TSLA at the beginning and [do] nothinig else'?
Re:A Man Who Abandoned Value by kgwgk on Wednesday March 03, 2021 @11:20AM (#26330460)
That seems closer to what they did than timing the market, don't you think?

My point was that to "test" if a concentrated stock-picking fund can get that result by luck you don't look at how often the market with such and such return and volatility gets that performance or how often randomly trading the market would you get this performance.

You look at how rare is it that a concentrated portfolio of random stocks has a very good performance. The answer is "not that much".